News

BlockBeats News, November 24, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) stated in its annual forecast survey that the U.S. economic growth will slightly accelerate next year, but job growth will remain weak, and the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of further interest rate cuts. This survey covered 42 professional forecasters, and the results showed that the median economic growth forecast is 2%, higher than the 1.8% in the October survey. Increases in personal spending and business investment are expected to drive economic growth higher, but nearly all professional forecasters agree that the new import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will drag down the growth rate by at least 0.25 percentage points. The survey report stated, "Respondents believe that the 'tariff impact' is the biggest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook." Stricter immigration enforcement is also seen as a factor restraining economic growth, while improved productivity is considered the most likely factor to push economic growth above expectations. In addition, inflation is expected to be 2.9% by the end of this year, slightly lower than the 3% forecast in the October survey, and is expected to drop only slightly to 2.6% next year, with tariffs expected to contribute 0.25 to 0.75 percentage points. By historical standards, job growth is still expected to be relatively moderate, with about 64,000 new jobs added per month, far below recent averages. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in early 2026 and remain at that level throughout the year. Due to persistently high inflation and only a slight increase in the unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, but only cut another 50 basis points next year, approaching the roughly neutral level of monetary policy. (Golden Ten Data)

BlockBeats News, November 24, DeepThink column author and Research analyst Chloe from a certain exchange pointed out that this week, ahead of the US holiday, the market is characterized by a "dense data release," with several key economic indicators set to be announced from Monday to Wednesday. High-frequency employment data (especially Wednesday's initial jobless claims) will be a key factor influencing risk appetite. The crypto market is still digesting the correction since October, with bitcoin down about 30% from its peak, continued net outflows from ETFs, and weakening premiums on certain exchanges, keeping overall sentiment at a low level. Although expectations of "ending balance sheet reduction + early rate cuts" support the medium-term outlook, the current stage is closer to a rebalancing phase before a liquidity shift, with institutional positions mainly focused on reducing holdings and hedging. Derivatives pricing reflects a defensive market stance: CME BTC futures premium has fallen below 4%, term structure is flattening; short-term implied volatility is higher than longer maturities; 25-delta put skew is negative across all maturities; IV rises in tandem with price declines. Overall, the decline phase may be nearing its end, but risk appetite has not yet recovered. If this week's consumer and employment data show a moderate weakening, the market may see a technical rebound; if the data is strong and suppresses rate cut expectations, a short-term pullback could still be triggered given the weaker holiday liquidity. Analysis suggests that the area around $80,000 may be an observation range for mid- to long-term allocation demand.