NABE annual survey: U.S. economic growth will accelerate slightly next year, but inflation may remain high

BlockBeats News, November 24, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) stated in its annual forecast survey that the U.S. economic growth will slightly accelerate next year, but job growth will remain weak, and the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of further interest rate cuts.

This survey covered 42 professional forecasters, and the results showed that the median economic growth forecast is 2%, higher than the 1.8% in the October survey. Increases in personal spending and business investment are expected to drive economic growth higher, but nearly all professional forecasters agree that the new import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will drag down the growth rate by at least 0.25 percentage points.

The survey report stated, "Respondents believe that the 'tariff impact' is the biggest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook." Stricter immigration enforcement is also seen as a factor restraining economic growth, while improved productivity is considered the most likely factor to push economic growth above expectations.

In addition, inflation is expected to be 2.9% by the end of this year, slightly lower than the 3% forecast in the October survey, and is expected to drop only slightly to 2.6% next year, with tariffs expected to contribute 0.25 to 0.75 percentage points. By historical standards, job growth is still expected to be relatively moderate, with about 64,000 new jobs added per month, far below recent averages. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in early 2026 and remain at that level throughout the year. Due to persistently high inflation and only a slight increase in the unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, but only cut another 50 basis points next year, approaching the roughly neutral level of monetary policy. (Golden Ten Data)