BarnBridgeの‌価格BOND

Very surprised to see IWM pumping on the back of a hot CPI print, I thought that would be the catalyst for a sharp drop before going parabolic Looks like the bond market is more concerned with the labor market than inflation right now

#10yrYield The bond markets have definitely already priced in the 25 bps. It seems that the yield might be suggesting a 50bps cut, if it doesn't manage to hold the support box. Bonds tell the story, FED reacts on it, said it too many times over the last few months. 80yr man with glasses is just a prop, thats why I never hear a word he says. Data is in the charts.

JUST IN 🚨: China's 30-Year Bond Yield jumps to highest level this year

MACRO ECONOMY IS IN BIG DANGER! First and more importantly, no matter when the recession crash happens, either in the next weeks or in Q1-Q2 2026 as described below, the 90-94k Bitcoin target remains regardless! The yield curve is one of the best leading indicators of the economy. It compares the interest paid on short-term US government bonds (2-year) with long-term bonds (10-year). Normally, long bonds pay more because you are lending for longer. That’s called a positive spread. When the opposite happens and short bonds pay more, it’s called an inversion. An inversion signals that investors expect trouble ahead and that the Fed will be forced to cut rates. The yield curve (10Y–2Y) inverted on July 5, 2022 and stayed inverted for 784 days, the longest inversion in U.S. history. Every single recession of the last 50 years has been preceded by this signal. On Aug 27, 2024 the curve flipped back positive (+0.56%). History shows the crash comes ALWAYS after normalization, not during inversion. Same happened in 1990, 2001, 2007 and now most recently in 2024-2025. Looking back at history, the lag between normalization and the start of a recession (Market Crash) was always short. In 1990, the recession began about 180 days after the curve turned positive. In 2001, it took only 60 days. In 2007, it was around 180 days again. So historically the lag has been in the 2–6 month range, but this cycle the inversion itself lasted much longer than any other cycle in history (784 days). The Fed already began cutting rates before a recession started, similar to what happened in 2001. The labor market is only now starting to weaken, with unemployment rising to 4.3% and job growth heavily revised down. So this time the clock is running much longer, 550–650 days but history still says the outcome is the same. A recessionary crash is coming, only with a bigger delay. So as per the calendar when should it start? We are now entering the high risk area in which the recession (Market crash) is going to hit the markets hard. Now, till Q2 2026 is high risk area and the big crash is going to happen in this timeline. On top of it Bond market SCREAMS HIGH RISK: 10Y \~4.05%, 2Y \~3.47%. Falling yields + positive spread are not bullish. This is exactly what we saw before 2001 and 2007 crashes, “back to normal” that was actually the calm before the storm. My Position The last post about the Inversion/ Positive spread recession indicator is one more confirming indicator for the big downside move and many of you missed the MAIN point. The next decisive move is BTC tagging 90–94K. The plan has not changed and I’ve said it for a month: sell 10% of spot daily into strength and load shorts whenever the market offers the 115–125K distribution zone. Because price slipped below our main short window, we’ve already executed 70% capital sits in USDT/shorts, and the remaining 30% spot is waiting for a retest of the short zone to unload and add even more shorts. That playbook is crystal clear. What happens after 90–94K? It’s too early to tell for now: either we print 90K and MOVE TOWARDS 140K before the recession crash, or the recession crash starts in the coming weeks, both events are highly likely and its early to tell. Again, 90-94k region is clear and this has to come. 90–94K gets hit. From there, depending on sentiment and short‑term signals, we either take the tactical 90K → 140K ride or sit tight in a very profitable short for lower targets if recession fear increases. Do not confuse the 90K correction with the recession leg, they are different events. 90K is coming regardless! If the crash timing is early–mid 2026, there’s room from 90K toward 140K before the top and the recession crash. These are the following scenarions: 1. BTC will continue in its "Short area range", later on dump to 90–94K 2. A major recessionary crash, think 1990/2001/2008 is ahead. Timing risk is at max now and extends through June 2026. Even on a 90K bounce, any long we take will be treated as high‑risk and managed with high risk management, because I’m 99% confident the crash lands between now and Q2 2026. I hope that makes it clear !