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U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs closed out the year under heavy pressure, extending their losing streak into the shortened Christmas Eve trading session. According to data from UK-based investment firm Farside Investors, net outflows on December 24 totaled approximately $175.3 million. This marked another negative day for the products, bringing total net outflows over the past five trading sessions to roughly $825.7 million. Since December 15, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net redemptions on nearly every trading day, with only one exception last week, when inflows of about $457.3 million were reported. Why Are Bitcoin ETFs Seeing Heavy Outflows? Market observers largely attribute the selling pressure to seasonal factors. Crypto trader Alek explained on X that much of the ETF selling is likely driven by tax-loss harvesting, a common year-end practice in which investors realize losses to offset taxable gains. He also pointed to the recent quarterly options expiry, which may have reduced risk appetite among institutional investors. At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative for weeks, signaling weaker demand from U.S.-based buyers. Analyst Ted Pillows summarized the situation by noting that the United States currently appears to be the largest net seller of Bitcoin, while buying interest is increasingly coming from Asian markets. Ethereum ETFs have shown a similar pattern, with rolling 30-day net flows remaining mostly negative since early November. Bitcoin Holds Steady Despite ETF Selling Despite the heavy ETF outflows, Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, trading near $87,700. Given the scale of selling pressure, this resilience can be interpreted as a constructive sign of underlying demand and structural support. With the calendar turning toward 2026, many market participants are watching closely to see whether seasonal selling pressure fades and institutional inflows return—potentially setting the stage for a renewed Bitcoin ETF recovery in the new year.

According to a well-known crypto analyst, Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-standing four-year cycle can no longer dictate the direction of the crypto market. For months, both Bitcoin and major altcoins have struggled to regain their previous highs, while traditional markets have flourished. This difference in performance has sparked discussions about whether the old cycle rule still applies and what could come next for the broader market. Analyst Declares Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Dead A popular crypto analyst with over 227,000 followers on X, @theunipcs, has announced that the Bitcoin four-year cycle is dead. He stated that this market cycle is now unable to determine the behavior of BTC and many major altcoins. Related Reading Ethereum’s 2026 Overhaul Aims To Cut Costs, Boost Speed, Limit Censorship 1 day ago Traditionally, crypto’s four-year cycles have relied on the Bitcoin halving to reduce supply and trigger price surges. However, based on Unipcs’ analysis, these mechanisms no longer govern the market, especially as factors such as monetary policy, Spot ETFs, liquidity flows, macroeconomic factors, and dramatic liquidation events have significantly altered it. Unipcs emphasized that the market has been in a long phase of consolidation and accumulation, showing little of the explosive activity historically expected after halving events. He pointed out that the price of Bitcoin and leading altcoins have remained depressed for months, trading roughly 30% or more below their all-time highs. This decline stands in stark contrast to other major asset classes, which continue to climb. The analyst noted that Silver has been hitting record levels almost daily, while Gold continues to climb to new peaks. Additionally, major US stock indexes, such as the SP 500, are hitting fresh highs, while crypto remains stagnant and underperforming. BTCUSD currently trading at $87,408. Chart: TradingView Notably, this extended period of weakness is highlighted by Bitcoin’s crash below $85,000 earlier this month after peaking above $126,000 during the first week of October. Many altcoins, including Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and others, have followed a similar trajectory, surging explosively before plunging to new lows. Technical indicators, such as the Fear Greed Index, indicate that investor sentiment remains deeply negative, while analyst insights point to a bearish market structure. Overall, Unipcs’ analysis signals the possible end of the historically repetitive 4-year cycle, though he suggests it could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase for crypto. What’s Next For BTC And The Crypto Market? Despite the prolonged slump, Unipcs believes that the ongoing accumulation trend could end soon, triggering an aggressive rally in the crypto market. He believes that once this happens, Bitcoin and major altcoins could surge explosively to new all-time highs once the dormant market transitions into a new bullish phase. Related Reading Could XRP Make Trillionaires? Tech Firm Founder Thinks It’s Possible 2 days ago While the timing of his optimistic outlook remains uncertain, the analyst is confident in the market’s potential for a decisive breakout and recovery. Unipcs has stated that the crypto market will eventually catch up and potentially outperform all asset classes soon. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

As 2025 reaches its final hours, Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a subtle but profound shift in market structure that could pave the way for a New Year's relief rally. While the surface-level price action remains muted, two critical signals an On-Balance Volume (OBV) trendline breakout and the first flip to positive HODLer accumulation in three months suggest that the floor is being reinforced by high-conviction investors. However, with year-end liquidity thinning, Bitcoin faces a formidable technical "gatekeeper" at the $90,840 level, which must be reclaimed to transform this defensive positioning into a sustained upward move toward $100,000. I. The Return of Conviction: HODLers Flip the Script The most significant on-chain development this week is the reversal of a three-month distribution trend among Bitcoin's most patient investors: First Positive Flip Since September: On December 26, the Hodler Net Position Change metric flipped positive for the first time since late September. Long-term holders those who have held for more than 155 days added approximately 3,783 BTC to their wallets. Institutional Signaling: These "slow movers" typically buy for long-term conviction rather than short-term speculation. Their return to accumulation suggests that the current price range is viewed as a value zone, providing a much-needed "spine" to the market's support levels as we head into 2026. II. Technical Breakout: OBV Signals Rising Pressure Supporting the on-chain data is a shift in volume dynamics that hints at a brewing momentum change: OBV Trendline Break: For much of late December, Bitcoin price and On-Balance Volume (OBV) were divergent, with volume failing to support minor price rises. However, OBV has now broken above a long-standing descending trendline, signaling that buying pressure is finally beginning to outpace selling pressure. Validation Levels: While the breakout is promising, it requires one final confirmation: OBV must make a higher high above the 1.58 million mark. If this occurs, it would likely serve as the catalyst for the price to finally attack its overhead resistance zones. III. Conclusion and New Year's Price Map The short-term outlook for Bitcoin is one of "cautious optimism" battling against thin holiday liquidity. The foundation for a relief rally is being built by long-term holders, but the technical targets remain steep. The $90,840 Hurdle: This level has rejected every recovery attempt for nearly two weeks. A clean close above this mark is essential to target the first major rally checkpoint at $97,190. Targeting $100k: If momentum carries through, the next logical targets for early 2026 sit at $101,710 and $107,470. Downside Floor: The entire bullish setup rests on the $86,915 support level. If thin year-end liquidity triggers a breakdown below this floor, Bitcoin risks a deeper correction toward $80,560, invalidating the current recovery thesis. Final Take: Bitcoin is finishing 2025 in a state of quiet accumulation. If the $86,915 support holds through the New Year's lull, the return of market participation in January could easily flip the $90,840 resistance, setting the stage for a run at six-figure valuations. ⚠️ Important Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

⚡ UPDATE: Satoshi’s wallet has lost over $42B since the all-time high. 📉 Even Bitcoin’s creator hasn’t been immune to the market drawdown. $BTC #bitcoin #BTC #satoshi

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