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#Bitcoin Slips 1.2% as Volume Thins $NEAR $100K Support

Bitcoin’s momentum loss continues as long-term holders add to market selling pressure, and rising US dollar strength leads investors to reduce their exposure to risk. Bitcoin has repeatedly struggled to maintain prices above $106,000 since early November, despite the S&P 500 sitting 1% below a new all-time high. Meanwhile, gold, the traditional store of value, has pared its recent losses and now trades just 4% below its prior record of $4,380. Many traders say that factors unique to the cryptocurrency industry may be affecting Bitcoin’s performance, but are these serious enough to keep BTC from reaching $112,000 again? The recent strengthening of the US Dollar Index (DXY) against a basket of major currencies reflects renewed confidence in the US Treasury’s ability to manage its fiscal challenges. When investors fear stagnating growth amid persistent inflation — a scenario often described as stagflation — the domestic currency typically weakens, as monetary expansion becomes unavoidable. For that reason, traders often highlight the long-standing inverse correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin’s price. By contrast, the US stock market tends to benefit from a stronger dollar and lower interest rates. Reduced borrowing costs lift corporate valuations, while favorable exchange rates make imported goods more affordable when priced in the local currency. Companies pursuing Bitcoin reserve strategies, such as Strategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet (MTPLF), have previously been among the largest corporate buyers, especially when their shares traded at a premium to their underlying assets. The mNAV multiple captures this relationship, representing the value of the Bitcoin held relative to the company’s enterprise valuation. Bitcoin price downturn erases share issuance incentive for companies The recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market has largely erased this advantage, removing the incentive for companies to issue additional shares. At current price levels, any new issuance would dilute existing shareholders, making it an unattractive option without a meaningful mNAV premium. These companies can still raise funds through debt or convertible notes, but such financing is typically less beneficial for investors. Debt holders often demand collateral, which effectively reduces the amount of Bitcoin factored into a company’s enterprise value; thereby limiting potential mNAV growth. Investor anxiety deepened after long-term Bitcoin holders, including those from 2018 or earlier, began selling amid a 20% pullback from the all-time high of $126,220. One prominent case is believed to involve Owen Gunden, an arbitrage trader from the era of the failed Japanese Mt. Gox exchange, who reportedly holds more than $1 billion worth of Bitcoin. In the past week alone, Owen transferred more than 1,800 BTC to the Kraken exchange, valued at over $200 million. While it’s not unusual for long-dormant addresses to move funds, traders are questioning whether these transactions reflect waning long-term confidence, particularly amid growing concerns about quantum resistance and the sharp rallies in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. Zcash has surged 99% over the past 30 days, followed by a 74% gain in Decred , a 37% rise in Dash, and a 22% increase in Monero. Despite $524 million in net inflows into Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Tuesday, buyer sentiment remains muted, leaving the odds of BTC reaching $112,000 in the near term relatively low. The selling by long-term Bitcoin holders, persistent US dollar strength and growing interest in privacy-focused tokens are collectively restraining Bitcoin’s recovery, keeping prices under $106,000 and signaling that meaningful upside may remain limited. $BTC

🔅𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗗𝗶𝗱 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝗻 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 24𝗛?🔅 - • SEC chair says most crypto tokens aren’t securities • Report: 16 blockchains can freeze user funds • Circle weighs Arc token launch amid USDC growth • Visa pilots USDC payouts for creators, gig workers • ZEC shielded pool reaches 23% of supply • Polymarket partners with Yahoo Finance • $BTC ETFs see $524M in strong daily inflows 💡 Courtesy - Datawallet

UNDERSTANDING THE MACRO CRYPTO MARKET The macro crypto market refers to the overall behaviour and trends of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and the broader altcoin market. These large-cap tokens often set the tone for smaller or early-stage tokens like ARIAIP. When BTC and ETH move strongly, they influence investor sentiment, liquidity, and trading activity across the market. BITCOIN (BTC) AND MARKET SENTIMENT Bitcoin is considered the benchmark of the crypto market. When BTC rises, investor confidence usually grows, and capital often flows into smaller tokens and early-stage projects. This could increase demand and trading volume for ARIAIP. Conversely, if BTC experiences a sharp decline, investors may retreat to safer assets or stablecoins, causing downward pressure on ARIAIP even if the project fundamentals remain strong. ETHEREUM (ETH) AND SMART CONTRACT ECOSYSTEMS Ethereum is the backbone for many blockchain projects and DeFi protocols. Positive ETH movements can signal growing activity and interest in tokenised assets, NFTs, and smart contract platforms. ARIAIP, being an intellectual property tokenisation project on a blockchain ecosystem, may benefit indirectly from increased engagement in smart contract applications. A declining ETH market may reduce investor appetite for riskier or niche tokens like ARIAIP. ALT-SEASONS AND CAPITAL FLOWS An alt-season occurs when altcoins collectively outperform BTC. During these periods, smaller tokens often experience rapid price appreciation as investors look for high-growth opportunities. If an alt-season occurs, ARIAIP could see higher trading activity, price spikes, and increased liquidity. On the other hand, during BTC-dominated periods, most capital remains concentrated in BTC, limiting attention and investment in smaller tokens. VOLATILITY AND TRADING RISK Macro crypto trends can amplify ARIAIP’s price volatility. Positive market conditions may trigger sharp upward moves, while negative trends can lead to rapid declines. Traders should expect swings in ARIAIP’s price correlated to the performance of BTC, ETH, and the overall altcoin market. STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS 1. Monitor BTC and ETH trends before making large trades in ARIAIP. 2. Use periods of market strength to enter or accumulate tokens when sentiment is positive. 3. Consider reducing exposure during bear phases or high BTC dominance periods. 4. Track alt-season signals to time potential short-term trading opportunities. ARIAIP’s trading performance is closely linked to broader crypto market moves. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoin cycles can influence investor sentiment, liquidity, and price action for ARIAIP. By understanding these macro trends, investors can better anticipate potential price movements, manage risk, and align their strategies with market conditions. This shows that even though ARIAIP has unique fundamentals in IP tokenisation, its market performance is not isolated and reacts to the larger crypto ecosystem. $BTC $ETH $ARIAIP

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