TON Price Prediction August 2025: Will Toncoin Break $4? Key Levels, DeFi/NFT Catalysts, and Risks
Toncoin has been one of the standout large-cap performers heading into August 2025. In the first week of August, TON price is fluctuating between $3.61 and $3.71 after a steady recovery that began in mid-June. The token is up roughly 24% over the past month, supported by improving spot flows and strengthening fundamentals across DeFi and NFTs.
Recent ecosystem milestones include a $9.5 million Series A for STON.fi—the leading DEX on TON—record-breaking NFT activity driven by Telegram integrations, and a landmark $558 million corporate treasury initiative aimed at accumulating TON. This article examines current ton price dynamics, provides a data-driven TON price prediction for August 2025, and explores the catalysts and risks that could shape the next move.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Ton Price Technical Analysis: $3.2–$3.3 Support, $3.7 Resistance, and What Confirms the Next Leg
Ton price rallied into the $3.7 zone—an area that capped advances in May—before encountering supply on the first attempt. The subsequent pullback has been orderly, with buyers defending a well-defined demand area around $3.3–$3.2.
The broader structure remains constructive: the market reclaimed support in June, formed a higher low, and is now consolidating beneath resistance while momentum rebuilds. For short-term validation, traders are watching for a clean reaction off $3.3–$3.2, evidenced by rising spot volume, diminishing lower wicks into support, and a sequence of higher lows on 4H and daily timeframes.
A decisive daily close below $3.2 would weaken this structure and increase the risk of a deeper move toward the psychological $3.0 level. Conversely, a sustained push through $3.7, followed by a successful retest as support, would strengthen the bullish case and could set up a trend continuation into August. With spot net inflows hitting a year-to-date high of $13.35 million on July 31, underlying demand has improved, reinforcing the constructive ton price setup.
Ton Price Prediction for August 2025: Base, Bullish, and Risk Scenarios
This forecast is a scenario-based outlook, not financial advice.
Base case (range with upward bias): $3.2–$3.9
Rationale: The $3.3–$3.2 demand zone has responded well. If buyers continue defending it and spot inflows remain supportive, TON likely oscillates between demand and the $3.7 resistance, with extensions toward $3.8–$3.9 on strong days.
Triggers: Successful retests of $3.3–$3.2; improving market breadth; continued ecosystem news flow.
Bullish breakout case: $3.9–$4.1/$4.4
Rationale: A daily close above $3.7 with rising volume and follow-through could force a breakout toward the psychological $4.0 area, with room for overextension if momentum accelerates.
Triggers: Clear reclaim and hold of $3.7 as support; further positive catalysts (e.g., DeFi expansion milestones, sustained NFT leadership, incremental treasury accumulation signals).
Bearish risk case: $3.2 → $3.0
Rationale: A failure to hold $3.2 would undermine the higher-low structure and invite a deeper correction toward round-number support at $3.0.
Triggers: Broad market drawdown (BTC/ETH pressure), fading spot inflows, or negative news.
Key trading plan cues:
Bullish continuation: Look for a bounce and higher low within $3.3–$3.2, then a push through $3.7 with volume and a successful retest.
Caution/invalidation: Daily close below $3.2.
DeFi on TON: Funding, Liquidity, and Yields that Could Support TON Price
TON’s DeFi footprint has expanded meaningfully in recent months, providing structural support for market depth and, by extension, ton price. STON.fi, which serves over 80% of the network’s DeFi user base, closed a $9.5 million Series A to accelerate cross-chain operations and enhance governance. If this roadmap is executed effectively, users can expect deeper liquidity, smoother price discovery, and improved execution quality—factors that typically contribute to more resilient ton price behavior during volatile periods.
Capital flows are reflecting this momentum. Spot net inflows surged to a year-to-date high of $13.35 million on July 31, signaling renewed appetite from market participants. Yield opportunities across TON-native venues have also been a draw. Recently reported ranges include up to about 18% on Ethena (USDe), as high as 63% on TONCO (TON/USDT), roughly 24% plus an additional 14% in STON rewards on STON.fi (TON/USDT), close to 23.9% on Storm Trade (TON), around 14.7% on DeDust (TON/USDT), and about 13.8% on Torch Finance (tgUSD). While these rates are variable and depend on incentives and market conditions, the breadth of options helps anchor liquidity on-chain. For analysts and investors refining a near-term ton price prediction, sustained DeFi growth is a meaningful input that supports a constructive bias.
TON NFTs are Surging: How Telegram Collectible Gifts and Stars impact TON price
NFT activity on TON has accelerated, propelled by native integrations within Telegram’s massive user base. On June 9, daily NFT trading volume on TON peaked near $9.7 million—approximately 62% of total market activity that day—outpacing Ethereum by about three times and Solana by eight times on that metric. Cumulative NFT sales have surpassed $300 million, with more than two million NFTs traded to date.
Telegram Collectible Gifts are central to this growth. These assets are embedded directly in chat, can be displayed on profiles, traded within the app, and optionally minted on-chain for provenance and liquidity. Public dashboards and commentary from Telegram founder Pavel Durov indicate that TON has frequently ranked at or near the top for daily NFT trading volume in recent months, often challenging or overtaking Solana on active days.
The Telegram Stars economy—used across games and digital rewards—funnels new users and demand into collectibles, increasing on-chain activity and fee generation. This social-native NFT flywheel bolsters network stickiness and user engagement, which in turn can support ton price during consolidation phases and validate a steady-toned ton price prediction that is grounded in real utility rather than purely speculative flows.
Institutional Treasury Bid: Why a $558M Strategy Could be a Tailwind for Ton Price
Institutional participation is taking shape through a novel corporate treasury model. Verb Technology (Nasdaq: VERB) completed a $558 million private placement to become the first publicly traded TON Treasury Strategy Company, with plans to rebrand as TON Strategy Co. More than 110 institutional and crypto-native investors participated, including Kingsway Capital, Vy Capital, Blockchain.com, and Ribbit Capital. The company intends to allocate the majority of proceeds to acquire Toncoin and to generate staking yield from its holdings, creating a cash-flow-oriented treasury while maintaining exposure to potential price appreciation.
Strategically, a dedicated treasury buyer can introduce persistent demand and may reduce liquid float over time. Staking rewards further align long-term holding with network security, while experienced leadership with TON ecosystem ties enhances execution credibility. These dynamics can provide a structural tailwind for ton price and become a significant factor in medium-term ton price prediction models. Key variables to monitor include transparency of purchases, cadence of accumulation, and risk management policies; large buy programs can also produce episodic volatility, especially in thinner liquidity conditions.
Conclusion: Key Signals and Levels to Watch
The balance of evidence into August is constructive. Ton price is consolidating above a critical demand zone at $3.3–$3.2 after multiple tests of $3.7 resistance. Our base-case ton price prediction anticipates range-bound action with an upward tilt between $3.2 and $3.9, while a confirmed breakout and hold above $3.7 could drive a move toward $4.0–$4.1, with a momentum stretch to $4.4 possible on strong follow-through. A daily close below $3.2 would weaken the bullish structure and put $3.0 back in view. Fundamentals—expanding DeFi liquidity, social-native NFT leadership via Telegram, and a developing institutional treasury bid—provide meaningful support beneath the technicals. Traders and investors should watch reaction strength at $3.3–$3.2, volume dynamics on approaches to $3.7, and ongoing ecosystem milestones to refine any active ton price prediction through the month.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only. This article does not constitute an endorsement of any of the products and services discussed or investment, financial, or trading advice. Qualified professionals should be consulted prior to making financial decisions.
