Stablecoins Pose Risks to Stability of Global Financial System

IMF analysts published a report on stablecoins, emphasizing that the growing popularity of using stablecoins as a means of payment increases systemic risks in the absence of unified international regulations.

According to the IMF, the stablecoin market cap reached $300 billion by September 2025, more than doubling in two years. At the same time, analysts argue that stablecoins have several significant shortcomings that pose systemic risks. Among them:

• deviation of major stablecoins from their pegs;
• vulnerability to mass redemptions;
• dependence on U.S. short-term Treasury securities.

The report highlights that fluctuations in stablecoin value remain a major source of risk. IMF data shows that about 99% of intraday deviations fall within 1%, but under stress conditions the gap may reach 12%. Analysts cited, for example, the drop in USDC in March 2023 after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and USDT’s issues in 2022 following the Terra crash. According to the IMF, such episodes demonstrate the vulnerability of even the largest assets and the lack of guarantees of stability during sharp capital outflows.

Analysts also warned that mass redemptions of stablecoins could trigger sell-offs of reserve assets. This primarily concerns U.S. short-term Treasuries, which account for up to 75% of the reserves held by major issuers. This could disrupt the functioning of key segments of the debt market, affect the transmission of monetary policy, and require emergency central bank intervention. According to the IMF, stablecoin issuers hold roughly 2% of the market for short-term U.S. government debt securities, and further growth would increase pressure on short-term yields.

The report also focuses on the threat of currency substitution and the potential impact of the stablecoin market on monetary policy in certain countries. In high-inflation economies, the use of dollar-pegged stablecoins is growing rapidly. According to the IMF, in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean, the volume of dollar stablecoins relative to bank deposits reached 1.5–2.7% in 2024. Analysts warned that the accelerated adoption of private digital currencies could weaken monetary policy effectiveness and reduce seigniorage in countries with fragile financial systems.

The report also highlights risks to financial integrity. IMF analysts argue that the pseudo-anonymity of stablecoins and the low cost of cross-border transactions make these assets convenient for bypassing capital controls as well as for money laundering and financing illicit activities. The expansion of unregulated wallets limits supervisory capabilities and increases the likelihood that such instruments will be used outside official financial channels.

The report also notes that even with active development of regulatory regimes across different countries, global fragmentation in approaches creates opportunities for arbitrage. Inconsistencies in standards, differences in reserve requirements, redemption procedures, and issuer status complicate risk management given the cross-border nature of stablecoins and require stronger international coordination. The IMF calls for accelerating the implementation of unified requirements for reserve quality, holder rights, issuer oversight, and operational risk management.

Recently, BlackRock analysts noted that stablecoins firmly established themselves in the global financial architecture and became a full-fledged payment mechanism influencing liquidity distribution and capital structure.