Institutions: Divergence in Fed Rate Cut Path Intensifies; Meeting Minutes Expected to Clarify Direction
data fog has intensified the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy, as many Fed officials express concerns about sticky inflation and remain cautious about further rate cuts. This has also kept U.S. Treasury yields within a relatively narrow range, as traders await new catalysts to change market pricing. "We have lacked guidance from top-tier economic data for too long, and it is difficult to form a highly confident judgment about the current state of the U.S. economy before seeing the data come out," said Michael Lorizio, Head of U.S. Rates and Mortgage Trading at Manulife Investment Management. The upcoming minutes of the Fed's October meeting may further reveal how many policymakers might oppose a rate cut in December. "When there seemed to be many differing opinions before, obtaining a summary through the minutes today may help further shape market expectations for the December meeting," Lorizio said.
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