China’s Influence on Soybean Trade and a Failing System Push U.S. Farmers into Turmoil

The agricultural economy in rural America is experiencing an uneven recovery, with government assistance reaching emergency levels as ongoing trade conflicts and deep-rooted challenges widen the gap between struggling farmers and more stable agricultural sectors. The situation has worsened due to China's ongoing hesitation to resume significant U.S. soybean imports, leaving farmers in the Midwest facing falling prices, rising production expenses, and unpredictable trade regulations. Meanwhile,

, though they provide immediate support, have come under fire for not tackling the fundamental problems plaguing American agriculture.

The trade standoff over soybeans between the U.S. and China has become a central issue in the economic hardships facing rural communities. Since October 2025, China has committed to buying 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans—less than half of the 26.8 million metric tons it imported in 2024. This gap has left Wisconsin's soybean farmers—whose industry is worth $1.3 billion a year—dealing with losses as global prices drop. "The unpredictability of trade policy has added more pressure on farmers who are already struggling to make future plans," stated Paul Mitchell, an agricultural economics professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison

. With China's reserves now at their highest in years, demand has weakened further, and that American farmers may not see a return to normal purchasing volumes for a long time.

The federal response has included emergency support, such as $30 billion in relief for Emergency Commodity Assistance and Supplemental Disaster Relief programs. Still, critics argue these efforts fall short, often driving up land values instead of improving farm profitability. "Farmers are stuck in a dysfunctional system," said Joe Maxwell from Action Farm Fund, a farmer advocacy group. "We keep spending on temporary solutions while the core issues in agriculture remain unaddressed"

. The $12 billion in aid promised by the American Relief Act is still on hold due to government shutdowns, adding to the uncertainty for farmers preparing for the 2026 planting season.

Recent changes in trade policy under President Donald Trump have sent mixed messages. On November 13, Trump issued an executive order that exempts major agricultural imports—such as Indian spices, coffee, and tropical fruits—from a 50% tariff increase, citing concerns over rising domestic prices. This move, part of broader trade talks, is intended to lower food costs for Americans and reduce pressure on importers. In a separate agreement, China has paused retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans in return for reduced U.S. tariffs, though a 13% duty still applies

. While these policy changes may offer short-term benefits, they do not address the underlying issue of China using soybeans as a tool in geopolitical negotiations, a strategy seen during the 2018–2019 trade conflict .

The pronounced split in the farm economy underscores the vulnerability of rural livelihoods. While large agribusinesses and major producers are able to adjust to changing trade conditions, smaller farms are facing severe risks. The latest figures from the Federal Reserve indicate that farm debt has hit unprecedented levels, with

now reporting debt from grocery purchases—a reflection of the wider food insecurity driven by inflation. As trade discussions continue, the future health of the sector will rely on comprehensive reforms, such as price controls and expanded SNAP benefits, to address the dangers of an increasingly divided agricultural market.