This Week's Preview: BTC Falls Below 94,000, AI "Judgment Day" and Macro "Settlement Day" Both Looming

Introduction: The new week kicks off with the familiar “Monday Red.” Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $94,000 this morning, and Ethereum (ETH) also briefly dropped below the $3,000 mark. Compared to the widespread decline in altcoins, this looks more like a “panic-driven early risk-off.”

This week, the main theme of the market is not “searching for narratives,” but “facing judgment head-on.” The two pillars of global high-risk appetite capital (including cryptocurrencies)—the “AI narrative bubble” and the Federal Reserve’s “rate cut expectations”—will face a direct reckoning this Wednesday.

Key Focus 1: AI’s “Narrative Judgment Day”—Nvidia Earnings (Post-market Wednesday)

• November 20, early morning (GMT+8): Nvidia releases its Q3 FY2025 earnings report

For the crypto market, Nvidia means far more than just a tech company. It is the absolute core of the global “AI narrative” and the strongest rival competing with the crypto market for scarce liquidity and risk appetite. Therefore, this earnings report is a “zero-sum game.”

Three major market scenario predictions:

Scenario 1: The frenzy continues (significantly beats expectations)

• Performance: Revenue and guidance far exceed Wall Street’s high expectations ($54.8 billions in revenue), and Jensen Huang signals “capacity remains severely insufficient” and “orders are booked into the following year.”
• Impact on the crypto market: Short-term bearish. This will prove the AI narrative’s “royal authority remains solid,” and the world’s most aggressive capital will continue to flow into the AI sector, causing the crypto market (especially altcoins) to face a severe “liquidity drain.”

Scenario 2: Bubble peaks (meets or misses expectations)

• Performance: Results meet expectations, but guidance for the next quarter is “just in line” or “slightly weak,” acknowledging increased competition or slowing demand.
• Impact on the crypto market: Short-term bullish. This would be the “first real shake” of the AI narrative. Massive capital will start to spill out from the AI sector, searching for the “next high-growth narrative.” The crypto market (especially AI-related sectors and DePIN) is likely to absorb this “fleeing” capital.

Scenario 3: Total collapse (major miss)

• Performance: Both results and guidance fail, proving that short-term AI investment has far exceeded actual output.
• Impact on the crypto market: Major short-term bearish. As a heavyweight in the Nasdaq 100 Index, Nvidia’s collapse will trigger a “double whammy” across the entire tech stock sector. Cryptocurrencies, as high-beta “tech stock shadows,” will inevitably be sold off alongside US equities.

Key Focus 2: Macro “Moment of Reckoning”—Minutes and Data (Wednesday)

• November 20 (GMT+8): The Federal Reserve releases the October FOMC meeting minutes
• November 20 (GMT+8): The US Department of Labor releases the September Nonfarm Payrolls report

After a “data vacuum” caused by the government shutdown, this week’s macro shocks will be “doubled” and “delayed.”

1. Fed Minutes: Searching for “hawkish” evidence Against the backdrop of several recent Fed officials making hawkish statements and December rate cut expectations falling below 50%, these minutes will serve as “official certification.”

The market will focus on the following clues:

• Definition of the “rate cut threshold”: Do committee members believe it’s “almost there,” or do they need to see “clearer signs of economic slowdown”?
• Assessment of “financial conditions”: Do they believe the recent stock market rally (before the shutdown) has “overly loosened financial conditions,” thus requiring hawkish signals to suppress it?
• Keyword search: Look for the frequency of terms such as “above-trend growth,” “patient,” and “restrictive.”

2. Backlogged Data (Nonfarm): The “delayed punch” Although this September nonfarm report is “late,” its importance is undiminished. It will provide the market with the “real data the Fed saw at the October meeting.”

Analytical logic:

• If the data is strong: It will confirm the Fed’s hawkish stance, further eroding expectations for a December rate cut, strengthening the dollar, and putting pressure on the crypto market.
• If the data is weak: This will create a contradiction between the “data and the Fed’s hawkish minutes.” The market may ignore the “outdated” information in the minutes and instead bet that an economic slowdown will force the Fed to pivot in December.

This Week’s Summary and Outlook

In summary, this week is a veritable “terrifying Wednesday.”

The market’s decline on Monday already reflects deep fear of Wednesday’s “double whammy” (Nvidia earnings + Fed minutes). Can the AI narrative withstand the “judgment of performance”? Can the market’s rate cut expectations survive the “interrogation of hawkish minutes”?

For crypto investors, any rebound before early Wednesday could be fragile. The true direction of the market—bullish or bearish—will be ultimately decided by Nvidia and the Fed on the same day. Fasten your seatbelts.