Shutdown-Related Data Shortfalls Lead Fed to Delay Reducing Rates

Bitget App

Trade smarter

Bitget

News

Markets

Shutdown-Related Data Shortfalls Lead Fed to Delay Reducing Rates

Bitget-RWA2025/11/16 12:44

By:Bitget-RWA

- U.S. government shutdown ended Nov 12, 2025, but left critical economic data gaps for Fed's December rate decision. - 1.4 million furloughed workers and $11B lost output highlight shutdown's severe economic impact despite mixed private-sector data. - Fed faces delayed/missing jobs reports and CPI data, increasing likelihood of rate cut pause as policymakers emphasize data caution. - Market expectations shifted from 95.5% to 53.6% chance of December cut, reflecting demand for evidence-based monetary polic

After 43 days, the United States ended its longest-ever government shutdown on November 12, 2025, when Congress approved a bipartisan spending package to restore federal operations. Although this broke the political deadlock and eased immediate economic worries, it created a new challenge: a significant lack of essential economic data for Federal Reserve officials as they approach their December meeting. With key reports on jobs and inflation either postponed or possibly lost, the Fed must now navigate with limited visibility,

making it more likely that interest rate reductions will be put on hold

The shutdown had a major economic impact. Roughly 1.4 million federal employees were either furloughed or went without pay for a month and a half,

resulting in a projected $11 billion decrease in economic output

over the coming year, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. Still, private-sector figures paint a somewhat less negative picture. The ADP report indicated private payrolls grew by 42,000 in October, surpassing forecasts, and

the Chicago Fed’s nowcast estimated unemployment

at 4.36% for both September and October.

Shutdown-Related Data Shortfalls Lead Fed to Delay Reducing Rates image 0

Despite these signals, the lack of official government statistics has left decision-makers with only a partial understanding of labor market conditions.

The Fed’s December gathering will proceed without access to the September and October employment numbers, the October inflation data, and other vital statistics.

Representatives from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have admitted

that the October CPI and jobs data may never be fully recovered, as data collection was either stopped or drastically reduced during the shutdown. This information gap has increased uncertainty among Fed policymakers, with several stressing the importance of patience. “It’s crucial to wait for as much data as possible before making decisions on rates,”

said San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

, while

New York Fed President Michelle Witzman Collins remarked

she would be reluctant to loosen policy further without unmistakable evidence of a weakening labor market.

Financial markets have already adjusted their outlook. By November 13,

the odds of a rate cut in December had dropped

to 53.6%, down from 95.5% in early October, showing that traders expect the Fed to base its actions on available data rather than act preemptively. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s previous comments—highlighting the need for caution amid ongoing uncertainty—have further fueled this cautious approach. With the December meeting approaching,

more analysts are predicting a pause in rate reductions

, giving policymakers time to evaluate the economy with the limited information at hand.

The repercussions of the shutdown go beyond monetary policy.

Court-appointed defense lawyers who went unpaid

, and who represent 40% of low-income criminal defendants, experienced major disruptions, with many forced to borrow money or take extra jobs to get by. Although payments are set to resume, the backlog of pending cases highlights the wider strain on federal services.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Earn new token airdrops

Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR

Lock now!

- The "Dead Internet Theory" resurfaces as AI-generated content dominates online platforms, blurring human engagement metrics. - Pixalate's Q3 2025 data reveals 37% non-human traffic in Brazilian mobile app ads, highlighting ad viewability crises. - C3.ai's 19% revenue drop and $117M loss underscore AI sector risks from high costs and competitive pressures. - Advertisers face unreliable metrics as algorithmic noise grows, prompting calls for stricter regulations and advanced analytics.

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/16 17:56

AI-Generated Algorithms and Human Interaction: The Internet's Trustworthiness Dilemma

Ethereum Latest Updates: Major Institutions Support Ethereum's Supercycle, While Technical Experts Raise Concerns

- Tom Lee predicts Ethereum's "supercycle" driven by institutional adoption and DeFi growth, sparking market debate over valuation risks. - SharpLink Gaming's 1,100% revenue surge and $200M ETH allocation to Linea highlight bullish institutional strategies amid price volatility. - Technical analysts warn ETH's $3,500 support is critical after breaking below key channels, with $37B daily volume reflecting mixed momentum. - Growing institutional demand contrasts with critics' concerns over centralization ris

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/16 17:34

Ethereum Latest Updates: Major Institutions Support Ethereum's Supercycle, While Technical Experts Raise Concerns

The Rapid Rise of ZEC (Zcash) Value: An In-Depth Technical and Strategic Analysis

- Zcash (ZEC) surged 66.55% in November 2025, peaking at $683.14, driven by treasury initiatives, privacy innovations, and institutional investments. - Cypherpunk Technologies' $50M treasury and Zashi Wallet's privacy swaps boosted demand, while Winklevoss Capital and Grayscale added $72.88M in institutional backing. - Technical indicators show overbought conditions (RSI 94.24) but bullish momentum persists, with derivatives markets holding $1.13B in open interest and a 1.06 long-to-short ratio. - Zcash's

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/16 17:32

The Rapid Rise of ZEC (Zcash) Value: An In-Depth Technical and Strategic Analysis

ICP Caffeine AI's Rising Popularity: Ushering in a New Age for Blockchain Investors and AI-Powered DeFi

- Dfinity's ICP Caffeine AI bridges blockchain and AI in 2025, enabling non-technical users to build dApps via natural language prompts. - The platform saw 30% ICP token price growth and $237B TVL in Q3 2025, but faced 22.4% dApp usage decline amid market saturation. - Investors prioritize infrastructure projects like ICP Caffeine AI for AI-driven DeFi scalability and security, contrasting with speculative token trends. - Regulatory scrutiny and user retention challenges persist, but enterprise adoption of

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/16 17:14