Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesEarnSquareMore
Rate Cut Odds Fall Below 50 %, Tension Rises

Rate Cut Odds Fall Below 50 %, Tension Rises

CointribuneCointribune2025/11/15 16:27
By:Cointribune
Summarize this article with:
ChatGPT Perplexity Grok

Markets hate unpredictability. Yet, within a few days, their certainties collapsed. The probability of a rate cut by the Fed in December, previously the majority view, is now below 50 %. This abrupt change of direction has revived tensions across all asset classes. In the crypto ecosystem, already severely tested by a corrective phase, this resurgence of uncertainty acts as a catalyst for volatility.

Rate Cut Odds Fall Below 50 %, Tension Rises image 0 Rate Cut Odds Fall Below 50 %, Tension Rises image 1

In Brief

  • The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December dropped to 45.9 %, down from 67 % in early November.
  • This sudden reversal fuels uncertainty in financial markets and further weakens the crypto market.
  • The crypto market, which had anticipated the previous rate cut, no longer benefits from any clear monetary catalyst in the short term.
  • The decline in liquidity and tightened expectations could extend the crypto stagnation period.

Markets revise their bets downwards

The scenario of monetary easing in December still seemed likely in early November. Yet, within a few days, the consensus eroded. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December fell below 50 %, a trend reversal that is starting to worry the markets.

Here are the key facts to remember :

  • 67 % of investors anticipated a 25 basis point cut at the December FOMC meeting, according to CME Group data. This probability has now dropped to 45.9 % ;
  • This reversal is linked to a deterioration in market sentiment and a more cautious assessment of economic prospects by the Federal Reserve ;
  • Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, dampened hopes for a quick easing, stating in October : “an additional reduction of the policy rate at the December meeting is not guaranteed, far from it. Monetary policy is not on a predetermined path”.

This statement fuels the idea that the Fed could keep rates high for longer, especially if economic indicators remain strong. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, expressed reservations about the Fed’s current strategy : “the Fed is stimulating the economy in a bubble context, which is typical of over-indebted economies near hyperinflation and monetary collapse”.

This context reinforces concerns about poorly calibrated monetary policy, facing an American economy marked by historically high asset prices, low unemployment, and tight credit spreads.

All this on-chain data helps reorient investors’ expectations, who no longer see a rate cut as a central scenario in the short term. Markets, including crypto, are now adjusting their positions amid greater uncertainty.

The crypto market weighed down by the absence of a monetary catalyst

While the crypto market had largely priced in the October rate cut, it produced no positive effect on prices. On the contrary, the decline continued, as illustrated by the movement of major cryptos over recent weeks.

According to Matt Mena, analyst at 21Shares, this cut was fully anticipated by investors, explaining the absence of a bullish reaction to its announcement. This phenomenon signals a waning momentum in the crypto ecosystem, lacking a clear short-term monetary engine.

The decreased likelihood of further monetary easing in December reinforces this sense of stagnation. Less potential liquidity means less capital injected into risky assets like cryptos, which further weighs on already pressured prices.

In this context, the absence of a rate cut in December could prolong the current consolidation phase, awaiting clearer signals from central bankers. While analysts at Goldman Sachs and Citigroup continue to anticipate three rate cuts in 2025 , this outlook remains distant for markets seeking immediate support.

In the short term, investors must cope with a less favorable environment than expected, where monetary catalysts are scarce and uncertainty dominates. In the absence of an employment report due to the shutdown , the Fed’s caution regarding inflation and macroeconomic imbalances reveals a scenario where patience will be required. For the crypto market, this likely means a few more weeks, or even months, without strong impetus.

0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Earn new token airdrops
Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR
Lock now!

You may also like

XRP News Update: XRP ETF Approaches Debut While Airdrop Counters Fraud

- Ripple launches XRP airdrop to boost adoption amid regulatory clarity and ETF launch preparations. - Surge in scams mimicking Ripple employees and fake airdrops undermines community trust ahead of ETF debut. - XRP faces $2.41 volatility with analysts predicting $30 price target if it breaks out of technical patterns. - Canary Funds' XRP ETF filing and Ripple's $50M SEC settlement signal institutional adoption potential. - Strategic fintech investments and XRPL Accelerator grants aim to counter scam threa

Bitget-RWA2025/11/15 18:54
XRP News Update: XRP ETF Approaches Debut While Airdrop Counters Fraud

Avalanche at $15.21: Will Support Spark a Rally or Trigger a Downturn?

- Avalanche (AVAX) trades at $17.40, consolidating between $15.21 support and $27.48 resistance since months. - Technical indicators show bearish bias with RSI at 38.89 and EMAs below key levels, warning of potential breakdown below $15.21. - Long-term forecasts predict 778% surge to $152.81 by year-end, but depend on overcoming psychological barriers and avoiding bearish breakdowns. - Market analysis emphasizes critical $15.21–$27.48 range as decisive battleground between buyers and sellers shaping AVAX's

Bitget-RWA2025/11/15 18:54
Avalanche at $15.21: Will Support Spark a Rally or Trigger a Downturn?

XRP News Update: Institutions Show Confidence While Bearish Indicators Persist—$2.75 Remains a Key Challenge for XRP

- XRP's price surged near $2.40 amid bullish technical signals and the launch of the first U.S. XRP ETF (XRPC), boosting institutional adoption. - Challenges persist: Bitcoin's bearish trend, low on-chain "supply in profit," and reduced retail demand weigh on XRP's upward momentum. - Evernorth's $343M XRP wallet transfer and BraveNewCoin's bullish flag pattern suggest institutional confidence in ETF-driven growth potential. - Analysts debate XRP's future: While some predict $100+ based on banking infrastru

Bitget-RWA2025/11/15 18:54
XRP News Update: Institutions Show Confidence While Bearish Indicators Persist—$2.75 Remains a Key Challenge for XRP

DeFi’s Open Capital Movement Drives the Growth of Decentralized Science

- Mutuum Finance (MUTM) raises $18.7M in presale, with Phase 6 reaching 99% allocation ahead of its Q4 2025 DeFi protocol launch. - The Ethereum-based platform uses transparent smart contracts to enable decentralized lending/borrowing, eliminating intermediaries and aligning with DeFi's innovation goals. - With 18,000+ holders and a 250% token price surge, MUTM's community-driven model and $500 daily leaderboard rewards accelerate grassroots adoption. - Its 45.5% presale allocation (796M tokens sold) and i

Bitget-RWA2025/11/15 18:54
DeFi’s Open Capital Movement Drives the Growth of Decentralized Science