Bitcoin Updates: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Ignores Downward Trends, Poised for Potential 6% Surge

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has reached a technical impasse that may soon resolve to the upside, reflecting a bullish formation similar to what was observed in

during its 2024 price surge. Both traders and analysts are paying close attention as the yield, which remains near 4%, displays a disconnect between its price movement and bearish signals—a setup that has often preceded sharp upward moves in the past. This situation is reminiscent of Bitcoin’s consolidation in mid-2024, which came before its historic climb to $100,000, as discussed in the analysis.

To grasp this situation, one must look at the monthly MACD histogram—a popular momentum gauge—which has stayed negative for almost two years, implying downward pressure on yields. Nevertheless, yields have managed to remain around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of a decades-long decline.

This has resulted in a tightening, contracting triangle pattern—a technical formation that often signals an imminent return of a trend. Experts point out that such divergences are usually signs of underlying bullish momentum, with bond sellers driving yields up even as momentum indicators weaken, as highlighted in the analysis.

Adding to the bullish outlook, the 10-year yield’s 50-, 100-, and 200-month simple moving averages (SMA) are aligned in a classic bullish sequence, providing multiple layers of support. The last time this setup appeared was in the 1950s, which was followed by nearly thirty years of rising yields. The Ichimoku cloud, a trend-following indicator, also supports a positive view, with the yield now solidly above its range for the first time since the 1980s, as mentioned in the

analysis. Together, these signals point to a strong chance of the yield breaking above its 2023 peak of 5.02%, with a possible move toward 6.25%, which marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the long-term decline.

The similarities to Bitcoin’s 2024 price action are notable. During that period, Bitcoin fluctuated between $55,000 and $70,000 while its MACD stayed negative. When the indicator finally turned positive in October 2024, it sparked a swift rally past $100,000, as outlined in the

analysis. This highlights a recurring theme in markets: technical indicators often lag behind price, and markets can build strength beneath the surface before a breakout occurs, as detailed in the analysis.

If the 10-year yield resumes its upward trend—a benchmark for the so-called “risk-free rate”—it could have major consequences for riskier assets. Higher yields generally put pressure on stocks and cryptocurrencies by raising borrowing costs and lowering the present value of future earnings. The recent end of the 40-day U.S. government shutdown, which boosted market confidence and sent Bitcoin to $106,000, adds another layer to the outlook. Some analysts now believe that if inflation eases as anticipated, Bitcoin could challenge $112,000, driven by a “dual catalyst” of political stability and better economic data, as reported in the

analysis.

Although a move to 6% is not certain, the convergence of technical factors and historical patterns has market participants preparing for a possible breakout. For now, the yield’s sideways movement suggests a pivotal moment is approaching—one that could alter the direction of both bond markets and digital assets.