PENGU Token’s Unstable Path: Chart Analysis and Key Momentum Factors in the Latter Part of 2025

The token has become a central topic of discussion as 2025 draws to a close, with its latest price movements highlighting a struggle between downward and signs of a potential bullish reversal. In the last week, PENGU has dropped by 30.5%, trading near $0.01485 as of November 7, 2025, and fluctuating within a tight band between $0.01454 and $0.01666, based on a . This recent volatility, along with conflicting technical signals and derivatives market activity, points to a market in flux. Below, we analyze the primary factors influencing PENGU’s short-term outlook.

Price Movements and Key Support Levels

PENGU’s latest decline has been marked by significant support zones that could determine its immediate trend. On November 5, the token lost more than 10% as

dominance increased and leveraged shorts accumulated around $0.0157, with derivatives data showing $7.68 million in short positions versus $3.67 million in longs, according to a . However, the TD Sequential indicator has issued a buy alert as the price remains above the crucial $0.01454 support, indicating possible stabilization, per the . This technical signal, together with lower volatility compared to earlier selloffs, suggests the token may be forming a bottom.

Technical Analysis: Short-Term Bearishness, Unclear Medium-Term

Short-term moving averages (8, 13, 21, 55 SMA) all indicate a bearish trend, with negative changes from -1.29% to -1.80%, while only the 144 SMA shows a positive reading at +3.96%, according to an

. The 1-hour RSI stands at 40, placing PENGU in a neutral range, but the 7-day RSI at 55 hints at a slight bullish tilt over a longer period, as noted by . This mixed picture is further complicated by a 14-day drop of -10.21%, highlighting the weakness in upward momentum, according to the . As a result, analysts have given a "strong sell" recommendation for the coming week, but remain "neutral" for the month ahead, based on a .

MACD and On-Chain Trends: Indications of Reduced Selling Pressure

The MACD for PENGU has recently shown a minor positive shift in late 2025, pointing to a possible easing of bearish pressure as the price neared $0.01589, according to a

. This is consistent with a cumulative volume delta (CVD) of -$64 million, which signals that selling activity is decreasing, as reported by the . On-chain data also shows a 30% rise in active addresses and a 3.2% increase in whale holdings over the past month, indicating growing user engagement and institutional interest, even as the price fell by 37.29% during the same period, according to a .

Derivatives Market: Bearish Sentiment Remains

Despite some encouraging on-chain developments, sentiment in the derivatives market is still negative. Short positions at $0.01579 amount to $7.68 million, with most leveraged trades falling in the 25x to 50x range, according to the

. This skew reflects ongoing caution among derivatives traders, who continue to see PENGU as a risky asset in the near term.

Strategic Takeaways

The overall data presents a complex scenario: while technical and on-chain indicators point to possible stabilization, derivatives activity and short-term averages still favor a bearish outlook. For investors, the TD Sequential buy signal and improving CVD suggest a prudent "hold" approach, with close attention to the $0.01454 support. A sustained move above $0.01666 could revive bullish sentiment, but until that happens, downward pressure is likely to persist.