Goldman Sachs: Even if the US Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal, the impact on the overall trade situation will be limited.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that in the oral debate section, several US Supreme Court justices questioned Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, indicating that the Supreme Court is increasingly likely to rule that the government's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs is unconstitutional. The market now predicts that the probability of the Supreme Court maintaining tariffs has decreased by about 10 percentage points. The final ruling is expected to be announced between December 2025 and January 2026. If the Supreme Court rejects the legality of tariffs, the government may need several months to refund the tariffs of about $115 billion to $145 billion that have been collected by then. However, the government is likely to seek other legal grounds to re-impose similar tariffs, meaning that the overall trade impact will remain limited. Any tariff reduction measures may only apply to smaller trading partners, and are not expected to have a significant impact on major economies such as the European Union. However, the handling of refunds and temporary tariff gaps may trigger short-term market volatility.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Bitcoin News Update: One Investor’s $64 Million Wager Stands Out Amid $1.2 Trillion Crypto Sell-Off
- Crypto market lost $1.2T since October due to extreme leverage unwinding and risk aversion, with $1.73B in liquidations on Nov 5 alone. - A single trader placed $64.7M leveraged long bet on Hyperliquid amid record BTC/ETH price drops and CNN Fear & Greed Index hitting 21. - European regulators dismantled €600M crypto fraud network while AMINA Bank secured EU MiCA-compliant crypto license, signaling mixed institutional confidence. - Bitcoin's 50-day EMA nears bearish crossover as whales dumped $45B BTC, y
Bitcoin Updates: Miami Mayor's Bitcoin Gains Propel the City's Ambitious Crypto-Focused Plans
- Miami Mayor Suarez's Bitcoin salary choice yielded 300% gains as holdings rose from $500k to $1.91m amid BTC's $108k price. - He advocates Bitcoin as "macroeconomic hedge" while advancing Miami's crypto policies, including tax payments and conferences. - His crypto embrace mirrors former NYC Mayor Adams' approach, boosting Miami's reputation as a blockchain investment hub. - The case study highlights crypto's dual potential/reward nature, with volatility contrasting long-term decentralization vision.
Economic Impact Grows as Ongoing ACA Funding Stalemate Prolongs Historic Shutdown
- U.S. government shutdown hits 36 days, breaking 2019 record as ACA funding deadlock worsens economic and social impacts. - 42 million Americans face reduced SNAP benefits, while airlines and federal workers endure disruptions amid $30B/week economic losses. - Political gridlock persists with Trump rejecting negotiations and Democrats demanding ACA subsidy guarantees, risking permanent GDP drag. - Analysts warn prolonged shutdown could spill into private sector activity, with Treasury acknowledging "unpre
Ethereum News Today: Ethereum Faces a Pivotal Moment as Sellers Stand Firm While Bulls Anticipate a Rally to $16K by 2025
- Ethereum dropped to $3,000 in 2025 but rebounded to $3,324, supported by technical levels and institutional accumulation, including BitMine’s $300M ETH purchase. - ETF redemptions and Bitcoin’s weakness (0.86 correlation) worsened market pressure, with $1.78B in crypto liquidations and $135.7M Ethereum ETF outflows reported. - Analysts remain bullish, projecting a potential $16,000 rebound by 2025 if ETH/BTC ratio normalizes and regulatory clarity boosts stablecoin demand, despite 200-day EMA resistance
Trending news
MoreCrypto prices
More
