DOGE drops 5.11% as large holders offload 1 billion tokens, putting the $0.15 support level at risk

On November 4, 2025, Dogecoin (DOGE) extended its downward trend, dropping 5.11% within a single day to reach $0.16013. Over the last week, DOGE has lost 13.04% of its value, 14.8% over the past month, and is now trading at nearly half its price from a year earlier. This steep decline has sparked worries about the coin’s short-term outlook, especially as it approaches crucial support zones.

The heightened volatility is largely attributed to significant sell-offs by major holders. Data reveals that wallets containing between 10 million and 100 million

offloaded more than one billion tokens in just one week, bringing their total holdings down to 22.9 billion DOGE—the lowest since the middle of summer. This large-scale liquidation happened as DOGE’s price slipped below the $0.18 mark, a key psychological barrier closely monitored by traders. Experts have pointed out the importance of this level, noting that it echoes similar declines seen in March 2024, when DOGE failed to recover the $0.20 mark before another major sell-off.

Multiple data sources highlight the effects of these whale movements. On-chain analytics from Santiment show a notable drop in whale wallet transactions, while Binance’s order book data reveals increasing imbalances and sudden surges in trading volume. These patterns suggest a coordinated effort to sell, rather than random portfolio changes. With no external factors—such as social media trends, new exchange listings, or regulatory developments—driving the move, it appears to be a deliberate strategy by large-scale investors and institutions.

Examining DOGE’s latest price movements shows a bearish trend forming near the $0.162 area. The nearest support is now at $0.15, but if the downward momentum persists, traders are preparing for a potential test of the $0.10 psychological level. Historical trends indicate that after whales exit their positions, the market often enters a consolidation phase lasting several weeks before any recovery. Currently, DOGE remains vulnerable, with liquidity drying up and retail investors finding it difficult to gain traction.

Technical analysis tools used in the backtest align closely with DOGE’s recent price trends, emphasizing the value of historical data in shaping trading strategies. The next section reviews how a strategy based on the “-10% in a single day” pattern has performed for DOGE since 2022.

Backtest Hypothesis

An event-driven backtest of Dogecoin’s “-10% in a single day” declines since January 2022 identified 30 such events. The short-term rebound over 1 to 5 days after these drops was limited, with a median gain of about 2%. However, this did not provide a statistically meaningful advantage compared to simply holding DOGE. From day 10 onward, returns worsened, and by day 30, the average cumulative return was -4.8%, lagging the benchmark by around 9 percentage points. None of the timeframes tested showed statistically significant results, indicating that this pattern does not offer a consistent or reliable trading advantage. The interactive dashboard lets users review daily metrics and adjust variables like window size, drawdown limits, and risk settings to further refine their analysis.