[100% Win Rate Whale] Adds Another 140 BTC, Becomes [Heavy Holder Whale]!

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing turbulent waves, as a so-called "100% win rate" whale, despite holding an unrealized loss of $18 million, continues to increase their position by adding 140 BTC against the trend, causing significant market volatility.

I. Whale Activity

As of the early morning of November 3 (GMT+8), a cryptocurrency whale with a perfect record of 14 consecutive winning trades has once again become the focus of the market. Within five hours, this whale increased their position by 140 BTC, bringing the total value of their long positions to $406 million.

● This whale's positions have not been smooth sailing. According to monitoring, the whale has held their positions for four days, with a maximum unrealized loss reaching $18 million, which has now narrowed to $1.98 million. Overall, the whale's portfolio includes a variety of mainstream cryptocurrencies, showing a strategy of diversified investment but focused on long positions.

Current Whale Position Overview:

II. Market Impact

The whale's move to increase positions occurred against a backdrop of intense volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

● On the evening of November 2, bitcoin briefly dropped below $110,000, triggering a wave of liquidations. In the past 24 hours, the total amount liquidated across the network reached $156 million, with 104,191 traders being liquidated. Of this, long positions accounted for $105 million in liquidations, while short positions accounted for $51.21 million, indicating that bulls suffered heavier losses during the crash.

● At the same time, on-chain data also shows unusual activity. In the past 24 hours, centralized exchanges (CEX) saw a net outflow of 4,841.74 BTC, with the trend continuing. Coinbase Pro saw the largest outflow at 6,249.16 BTC, while Binance had a net inflow of 1,947.99 BTC, ranking first among inflows.

III. Market Background Analysis

● The current cryptocurrency market is facing a complex macro environment. Since October 1, the U.S. federal government "shutdown" has lasted for 32 days, marking the second-longest in history. This political deadlock has had a profound impact on the economy, with over a million U.S. military personnel facing pay issues and about 42 million Americans facing food shortages in November.

● Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently warned at a press conference that further rate cuts cannot be guaranteed, citing the disruption of economic reports due to the government shutdown. This week, several Fed officials are scheduled to speak, with the most notable being New York Fed President Williams—who holds significant influence over monetary policy.

● After the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, previously strong assets such as gold and bitcoin both pulled back. On one hand, this was due to profit-taking after the positive news was fully priced in; on the other hand, it was due to concerns about future uncertainty.

IV. Whale Strategy Decoded

Analyzing the strategy of this "100% win rate" whale reveals several key characteristics:

● High-leverage commitment to long positions: Despite increased market volatility, the whale has stuck to a bullish strategy, with over $400 million in long positions weathering an $18 million unrealized loss.

● Diversified holdings: The whale's portfolio includes BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, and other cryptocurrencies, but the overall direction is long, reflecting strong confidence in the overall cryptocurrency market.

● Exceptional ability to hold positions: Even with a maximum unrealized loss of $18 million, the whale maintained their positions and increased them at the right time, ultimately narrowing the loss to $1.98 million, demonstrating strong financial resources and psychological resilience.

This strategy stands in stark contrast to ordinary investors. During the same market volatility, over 100,000 investors were forcibly liquidated due to excessive leverage.

V. Market Sentiment

● FOMO sentiment following the whale: Some investors view the whale's moves as a market indicator, quickly following suit when they notice the whale increasing positions, hoping to catch the momentum.

● Cautious wait-and-see attitude: Other investors remain wary of the whale's high-leverage operations, especially since the whale's positions are still at a loss amid heightened market volatility.

● Pessimistic expectations: Given the U.S. government shutdown has become the second-longest in history and the Fed's uncertain stance on future rate cuts, some investors are choosing to exit and wait on the sidelines.

VI. Risk Warning and Outlook

For investors attempting to follow the whale's moves, the following major risks should be noted:

● High leverage risk: The whale can withstand huge unrealized losses due to their massive capital strength. Ordinary investors using high leverage to copy trades are likely to be liquidated early during market swings.

● Liquidity crisis: The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of several economic data releases, forcing the market to rely on corporate earnings reports to gauge economic health, increasing uncertainty.

● Opaque strategy: Investors can only observe the whale's opening and increasing positions, but cannot know their closing timing, making it easy to become "bag holders."

 

In the next 1-2 days, the market should closely monitor the following key developments:

● The U.S. Senate plans to hold its next vote on the evening of November 3 (the 34th day of the government shutdown), with much attention on whether the two parties can reach a last-minute compromise.

● Several Fed officials will speak this week, especially New York Fed President Williams, whose remarks may hint at the future direction of monetary policy.

Market volatility continues. After dropping below $110,000, bitcoin has rebounded slightly to $110,521, but the whale's moves continue to trigger chain reactions. Ordinary investors following in the whale's footsteps must carefully assess their own risk tolerance and remain clear-headed in the turbulent cryptocurrency market.