BTC +1.16% Despite Varied Mid-Term Patterns
- Bitcoin rose 1.16% in 24 hours to $111,234.37, with a 18.99% year-to-date gain amid ongoing volatility. - Analysts highlight short-term bullish momentum but caution against sustainability without breaking key resistance levels. - Technical indicators show BTC above 50/200-day averages, suggesting structured upward trends but lingering trader hesitation. - A backtest analysis faced data limitations due to BTC's rare 15%+ daily surges, prompting alternative evaluation methods. - Market focus remains on tec
On October 24, 2025, Bitcoin increased by 1.16% over the previous 24 hours, reaching a price of $111,234.37. Over the last seven days, the cryptocurrency advanced 2.49%, but it has declined 2.37% in the past month. Since the start of the year, BTC has risen 18.99%, demonstrating its ability to withstand periods of volatility.
The current movement in price fits into a larger consolidation phase that has followed significant corrections seen earlier this year. Experts point out that the recent daily gain indicates a short-term bullish trend, but it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin can maintain this momentum without surpassing important resistance points. The drop over the past month suggests the market is still digesting conflicting signals, with bearish attitudes lingering despite the latest upward move.
Technical analysis shows that BTC has stayed above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages for several weeks. This could indicate the beginning of a more organized upward trajectory, although the absence of strong buying pressure may reveal continued caution among market participants. On the weekly timeframe, the price has settled into a clear range, with the upper limit acting as a significant psychological barrier; breaking above it could spark renewed buying activity.
Market participants are monitoring for signs of a breakout, as this could confirm the recent strength and potentially mark the start of a new rally. If the price can hold above this range, it may draw in institutional investors and encourage wider market involvement. On the other hand, if the price fails to move higher, bearish sentiment could return and prompt another test of crucial support zones.
Broader macroeconomic expectations are also shaping how the market responds to BTC’s price changes. Although the immediate attention is on technical trends and blockchain data, the lack of significant regulatory or economic developments has allowed Bitcoin’s price to be driven mainly by its own fundamentals in the short term.
Backtest Hypothesis
A recent backtesting study aimed to assess BTC’s performance following days when its price jumped by 15% or more. Covering the period from January 1, 2022, to October 24, 2025, the analysis faced a technical constraint due to the rarity of such large price increases. In fact, only one trading day was identified where BTC closed up by at least 15%, making it impossible to calculate dispersion metrics like standard deviation or confidence intervals.
To address this, analysts suggested several alternatives: manually reviewing the outcome of the single event, lowering the threshold to include more frequent gains (such as 10% or 7%), or conducting a strategy-based backtest that simulates buying after a 15% surge and tracking results over a set period. Each approach offers unique perspectives: the first gives direct insight into a rare occurrence, the second allows for broader statistical evaluation, and the third replicates practical trading scenarios.
These methods emphasize the importance of adaptability when analyzing BTC’s historical reactions to sharp price increases. They also highlight how infrequent such extreme daily moves have become, which may indicate a more stable and mature market environment compared to previous years.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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