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Dogecoin (DOGE) is approaching a sensitive phase as weakening investor demand, stalled ETF inflows, and growing sell-side pressure converge near a key price area. Related Reading: XRP Risks Double-Top Crash Toward $0.40, Peter Brandt Warns Once driven largely by retail enthusiasm, the meme coin is now trading closer to levels where a significant share of holders last acquired their tokens, raising questions about downside risk if confidence continues to erode. At the same time, isolated whale accumulation and long-term cost-basis data suggest the market is approaching a zone that could define the next major move. DOGE's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: DOGEUSD on Tradingview Dogecoin ETF Inflows Stall as Sentiment Softens One of the clearest shifts in Dogecoin’s recent market structure has been the loss of momentum in its exchange-traded funds. Data shows that the Grayscale and Bitwise DOGE ETFs have not recorded any inflows since December 11, with total inflows since launch standing at roughly $2 million. Combined assets under management are around $5.2 million, representing a negligible fraction of Dogecoin’s overall market capitalization. The muted response contrasts sharply with other altcoin ETFs, particularly XRP and Solana products, which have attracted hundreds of millions of dollars in inflows. The lack of sustained interest has raised questions about the long-term viability of DOGE-focused funds, especially given their low revenue potential at current asset levels. More broadly, the ETF slowdown reflects a risk-averse environment, with the crypto Fear and Greed Index remaining in fear territory. On-Chain and Derivatives Data Point to Bearish Bias Beyond ETFs, on-chain metrics show declining participation from large holders. Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE have reduced their balances by over 1 billion tokens since early December. Similarly, the proportion of DOGE supply in profit has slipped to near 50%, suggesting fewer holders are sitting on unrealized gains. Derivatives markets reinforce this cautious outlook. Short positions now account for more than half of open DOGE derivatives, while over $5 million in long positions were liquidated in a 24-hour period. Open interest has also declined, pointing to reduced speculative appetite rather than aggressive dip-buying. Price Near Key Support as $0.10 Comes Into Focus Technically, Dogecoin is trading near the $0.123–$0.126 range, an area that has repeatedly acted as support since April. The price remains below key moving averages, with momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI signaling continued downside pressure. A decisive break lower could expose the psychological $0.10 level. Related Reading: Ethereum Risks Slide To $2,000 If December Closes Below This Level: Analyst Analysts have also projected deeper historical support near $0.074, where roughly 28 billion DOGE last changed hands. While a move to that level would require further deterioration in sentiment, current conditions suggest Dogecoin is approaching a cost-basis zone that could determine whether sellers remain in control or longer-term holders begin to step in. Cover image from ChatGPT, DOGEUSD chart from Tradingview

Dogecoin DOGE $0.12 24h volatility: 2.2% Market cap: $18.66 B Vol. 24h: $1.56 B price found support near $0.12 on Dec. 22, buoyed by the bullish tone of House of DOGE’s 2025 shareholder letter. The treasury and corporate arm of the Dogecoin Foundation outlined its expansion into regulated finance, payments, and sports partnerships ahead of a planned NASDAQ listing in early 2026. --> House of DOGE Expands Treasury, Targets NASDAQ Listing According to the shareholder update, House of DOGE has signed a definitive merger agreement with Brag House Holdings (NASDAQ: TBH), positioning it to become one of the first publicly traded Dogecoin-focused corporations. The firm confirmed its Official Dogecoin Treasury has surpassed 730 million DOGE, managed under a 10-year asset agreement with CleanCore Solutions (NYSE: ZONE), ranking it among the largest institutional holders of Dogecoin globally. CEO Marco Margiotta highlighted that 2025 marked a year of “deliberate, foundational progress,” emphasizing that 2026 will focus on execution and commercialization. The company’s roadmap includes launching a rewards debit card, an embeddable Dogecoin wallet, and merchant acceptance tools to drive real-world adoption. House of DOGE is also looking to expand institutional access through partnerships with 21Shares, enabling ETP and ETF exposure to Dogecoin across European and US markets. The firm’s sports investments, in the Italian football clubs US Triestina Calcio 1918 and HC Sierre also aim to integrate Dogecoin into fan engagement, ticketing, and tokenization initiatives. Despite the strong fundamentals, Dogecoin continues to trade 2.5% lower at $0.127, with CoinMarketCap data showing a 29% rise in daily volumes, signaling persistent sell-side activity. Bitcoin BTC $85 684 24h volatility: 0.0% Market cap: $1.71 T Vol. 24h: $54.33 B inability to reclaim $90,000 has weighed on memecoins, keeping speculative demand subdued. Dogecoin Price Forecast: Can DOGE Reclaim $0.14 or Slip Below $0.12? Dogecoin’s daily chart shows a clear bearish pennant formation, signaling continued downside pressure after repeated failures to break the descending resistance line near $0.14. The pattern has unfolded under the upper Bollinger Band (BB) resistance at $0.154, with prices now consolidating near the lower BB at $0.124. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 33.09, hovering in oversold territory. This reflects exhaustion among short-term sellers but has yet to trigger meaningful accumulation signals. Historically, RSI levels near 30 often precede mild bounces, especially when accompanied by rising volume as observed on Dec. 19. Dogecoin (DOGE) Technical Price Analysis, Dec. 18, 2025 | Source: TradingView If buyers defend the $0.12 support, a short-term recovery could lift DOGE toward $0.135, aligning with the midline of the Bollinger Band and the 20-day SMA at $0.139. A decisive breakout above $0.14 would invalidate the bearish pennant, exposing resistance at $0.16, the level required to confirm a trend reversal. On the downside, a daily close below $0.12 could accelerate a drop toward $0.10, the measured move target from the pennant breakdown. With 58.64% downside probability, Dogecoin remains at risk of setting new weekly lows, unless macro sentiment improves. next I’m a research analyst with experience supporting Web3 startups and financial organizations through data-driven insights and strategic analysis. My goal is to help organizations make smarter decisions by bridging the gap between traditional finance and blockchain innovation. With a background in Economics, I bring a solid understanding of market dynamics, financial systems, and the broader economic forces shaping the crypto industry. I’m currently pursuing a Master’s degree in Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technologies at the University of Malta, where I’m expanding my expertise in decentralized systems, smart contracts, and real-world blockchain applications. I’m especially interested in project evaluation, tokenomics, and ecosystem growth strategies, as these are areas where innovation can drive lasting impact. By combining my academic foundation with hands-on experience, I aim to provide meaningful insights that add value to both the financial and blockchain sectors. Ibrahim Ajibade on LinkedIn Share:

$DOGE trading near 0.1292 and showing an early bounce from short term support on the 1H chart. Buyers are stepping back in and momentum is slowly turning up. This looks like a recovery attempt, not a breakout yet, so patience matters. As long as price holds the support zone, upside continuation stays in play. Entry zone 0.1280 to 0.1300 Targets TP1: 0.1330 TP2: 0.1380 TP3: 0.1450 Stop loss 0.1240 Structure is improving, but no chasing. Let levels do the work and keep risk tight. $DOGE

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