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$Bitcoin at the Gate: The 94K Decision That Will Define the Next Macro Leg The Fed cut was the spark. Now we see if there's fuel. Bitcoin is performing a perfectly standard, high-stakes test at $94,000. This isn't a mystery; it's market mechanics in their purest form. The level is a flipped polarity zone—former December support turned resistance—and the entire short-term trajectory hinges on its resolution. The Two-Tiered Framework: 1. The Gatekeeper (94K): A daily/weekly close above this with expanding volume isn't just a "breakout." It's a liquidity grab that would trigger trapped shorts and force hesitant momentum buyers off the sidelines. The target becomes $99,000, not as a round number, but as a confluence magnet—where psychological resistance meets a dense on-chain cluster of old seller congestion. 2. The Springboard (88K): If $94K holds as a wall, the pullback to **$88K** is the preferred outcome for trend integrity. That's the "crash low" zone—a high-liquidity pool where the last wave of buy orders filled. A retest there would shake out weak hands and gather energy for a cleaner assault higher. This would be a feature of the trend, not a failure. The Hidden Data: What Most Are Missing The conversation is stuck on price. The real story is in structure and rhythm. · The RSI Whisper: The 4-hour chart showed a clear bullish divergence—price made a higher low, but RSI made a significantly higher low. That's institutional accumulation, not retail chasing. That move is now mature. Watch for the next divergence to form. · The Fed Cut Playbook: Look at September, October, and now. The pattern is ritualistic: Cut → Knee-jerk rally → Shakeout (confusion phase) → Sustained drift higher. We are in the "shakeout" phase. The market is probing for the true post-cut equilibrium. · The Liquidity Landscape: The Fed is cutting. The Treasury is buying bills. Systemic liquidity is rising. This is the macro tide. Bitcoin doesn't need euphoria in this phase; it needs a steady drip of capital allocation. That drip is now programmed. The Strategic Takeaway: How to Position, Not Just Predict Throw away the "bullish vs. bearish" dichotomy. That's for spectators. The correct framework is conditional readiness: · IF price sustains above $94,300 (giving a clear margin beyond the round number), **THEN** the path of least resistance leans into $99K. Your risk management shifts to protecting gains on a close back below $94K. · IF price rejects and slides, THEN $88K is not a threat—it's the next high-probability opportunity zone. Weakness into that area, especially on fading volume, is a structural buy for the next leg up. The Bottom Line: This is not a time for conviction in direction. It's a time for conviction in your levels and agility in your execution. The larger trend—defined by rising liquidity and a held macro higher low—remains intact. Whether we vault from $94K or reload at $88K, the underlying engine is unchanged. Watch the gate. Trade the test. .

El conocido jugador de póker y creador de contenido Corey Eyring ha puesto en marcha un evento especial de Navidad en formato freeroll con un valor total de 30.000 $. La iniciativa está dirigida a sus suscriptores y ofrece la oportunidad de acceder a partidas de póker de alto nivel, además de premios en efectivo. Dos participantes obtendrán plazas valoradas en 10.000 $ cada una, mientras que otros 10.000 $ se repartirán entre los finalistas. Para entrar en el sorteo, los jugadores deben disputar manos de cash game en CoinPoker utilizando el código CE. Con esta propuesta, Corey acerca a sus seguidores a partidas reales de stakes elevados sin que tengan que arriesgar dinero propio. El origen del freeroll navideño de 30.000 $ A comienzos de año, Corey Eyring se marcó como meta alcanzar 1.000.000 $, pero el camino no fue sencillo. En su papel como embajador de CoinPoker y miembro del Creator Squad, decidió invertir 165.000 $ de su propio capital en tres criptomonedas: Bitcoin, Ethereum y Solana, destinando prácticamente todo su patrimonio a esta apuesta. La expectativa era positiva, pero el mercado cripto no respondió como esperaba. “Estamos perdiendo de forma catastrófica”, reconoció posteriormente. Con la caída generalizada del mercado, Corey optó por replantear su estrategia para llegar al millón de dólares antes de 2026. Dejó temporalmente a un lado las criptomonedas y volvió a centrarse en el póker, un terreno en el que cuenta con una amplia trayectoria. “En el mundo del póker, los inversores suelen respaldar a jugadores fuertes a cambio de un porcentaje de los beneficios”, comenta. “No conozco a muchos jugadores top, pero sí tengo una base de suscriptores convencida de que lo son”. De esta reflexión nació la idea de crear un gran concurso para financiar a miembros de su comunidad en partidas de cash de límites altos. Dos plazas, dos oportunidades en póker de alto nivel La propuesta de Corey combina simplicidad, espectáculo y un punto de riesgo. El objetivo es sentar a dos de sus suscriptores en mesas de póker de límites altos en The Lodge, la reconocida sala de póker de Texas gestionada por Doug Polk. Tras haber invertido gran parte de su capital en criptomonedas, Corey contó con el apoyo de Abby Merk y Andrew Neeme para hacer posible el freeroll navideño. Con todo preparado, el plan comenzó a tomar forma. Siguiendo unos requisitos muy claros, dos suscriptores podrán conseguir una plaza de 10.000 $ cada uno: Registrarse en CoinPoker desde móvil o PC con el código CE Jugar manos de cash game entre el 6 y el 25 de diciembre Dos participantes distintos ganarán una plaza de 10.000 $ para jugar en The Lodge. Sistema de selección de ganadores Plaza de freeroll de 10.000 $ número uno — The Protege Esta plaza se asigna al jugador que obtenga el mejor BB/100 tras un mínimo de mil manos. El criterio decisivo será el mayor beneficio neto (PNL) acumulado entre el 6 y el 25 de diciembre. Los distintos niveles de apuesta cuentan con ponderaciones diferentes. Plaza de freeroll de 10.000 $ número dos — The Grinder Los diez jugadores con mayor volumen total de manos jugadas entre el 6 y el 25 de diciembre accederán a un torneo de diez participantes. El ganador de este torneo se llevará una plaza de 10.000 $ para The Lodge. Todos los niveles tienen el mismo peso; el volumen de juego es el factor clave. Cualquier intento de inflar el número de manos mediante auto-fold excesivo implicará la descalificación inmediata. El torneo se celebrará el 27 de diciembre de 2025 a las 10:00 UTC. Además, Corey repartirá otros 10.000 $ adicionales en premios. Los segundos clasificados de The Protege y The Grinder compartirán un total de 5.000 $ en efectivo. Las normas completas y el sistema de puntuación están disponibles en la página oficial del Christmas Freeroll de Corey Eyring. The Protege: Kayla consigue la plaza de 10.000 $ y juega en The Lodge De entre los 74 participantes, Corey seleccionó rápidamente a Kayla como ganadora de The Protege y de la primera plaza. Kayla confesó estar nerviosa y describió la experiencia como una auténtica montaña rusa emocional, pero aun así se sentó a jugar en una retransmisión en directo junto a jugadores habituales como Andrew Neeme, Skull Mike y DQ. Para el stream eligió el alias “Sweet K”. Tras un inicio complicado, logró llevarse un bote de 3.000 $ frente a dos manos superiores en un all-in arriesgado. Poco después, sus nueves de mano vencieron en otro all-in contra ochos y conectores del mismo palo, situándola con miles de dólares de beneficio. Con confianza, incluso intentó farolear a Corey, que pagó una apuesta en el river con tercera pareja para “mantenerla honesta”. Al terminar la sesión, Kayla cerró con un beneficio de 9.005 $, demostrando que incluso suscriptores de YouTube pueden competir con éxito en partidas de alto nivel. En conjunto, Corey y Kayla obtuvieron 22.340 $ durante la sesión en The Lodge. Todavía queda una plaza de 10.000 $ por adjudicar La segunda plaza, correspondiente al reto The Grinder, aún no tiene ganador. Esta parte del freeroll navideño recompensará al jugador que acumule un gran volumen de manos y se imponga después en un torneo de diez jugadores. Para optar a ella, basta con registrarse en CoinPoker desde móvil o PC con el código CE y disputar partidas de cash entre el 6 y el 25 de diciembre. Las reglas insisten en que solo se aceptará juego real, descartando estrategias basadas únicamente en plegar manos. Gracias a la colaboración entre Corey y CoinPoker, dos personas terminarán jugando freerolls valorados en 10.000 $, mientras que otros participantes obtendrán premios en efectivo. Entre todos ellos, Corey confía en encontrar al próximo jugador capaz de repetir lo logrado por Kayla: presentarse, asumir el reto y demostrar que tiene nivel para estar en esas mesas. Sobre CoinPoker CoinPoker es una de las principales plataformas de póker online, con un enfoque centrado en la equidad, la innovación y la accesibilidad. Cuenta con el respaldo de embajadores reconocidos como Corey Eyring, Frankie C, Ryan DePaulo, Patrick Leonard, Bencb y Mario Mosböck. Además de freerolls regulares con dinero real, CoinPoker organiza grandes eventos online como la Coin Series of Poker y el Cash Game World Championship. Promociones activas de CoinPoker para jugadores de póker Bono de bienvenida del 150 % hasta 2.000 $ Fast and Furious, con acción rápida y recompensas especiales Seven Deuce Game, disponible online CoinMasters, con 250.000 $ en premios totales y una carrera con valor de 100.000 $ 📞 Contacto para medios media@coinpoker.com

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter,The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons. Happy Tuesday! Crypto markets are struggling to gain traction, with analysts saying renewed macro jitters, thin year-end liquidity, and a rapid shift into risk-off positioning are driving traders toward safer assets. In today's newsletter, Bitwise predicts new bitcoin all-time highs in 2026, Ark Invest buys the dip, spot XRP ETFs surpass $1 billion in cumulative inflows, and more. Meanwhile, SEC Chair Paul Atkins warns crypto could become a "powerful financial surveillance" tool, but sees a path forward without giving up privacy. P.S. Don't forget to check out The Funding, a biweekly rundown of crypto VC trends. It's a great read — and just like The Daily, it's free to subscribe! Bitwise CIO says bitcoin will break 4-year cycle and set new all-time highs in 2026 Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicted bitcoin will break its historical four-year cycle and set new all-time highs in 2026 as structural market forces weaken past patterns. Hougan argued that diminishing halving impacts, falling interest rate expectations, and fewer leverage-driven blowups remove key drivers of previous boom-and-bust cycles. He also expects institutional adoption to accelerate as major wealth platforms and Wall Street firms expand allocations under a more supportive U.S. regulatory backdrop. Additionally, Hougan said bitcoin volatility will continue to decline in 2026, noting it was less volatile than Nvidia stock throughout 2025 as traditional vehicles like ETFs broaden the investor base. He also forecasts lower correlation between bitcoin and equities overall, with crypto-specific catalysts supporting prices even if stock markets face pressure from valuation concerns and slower economic growth. Taken together, Hougan said the outlook points to a rare trifecta of strong returns, lower volatility, and falling correlations that could attract tens of billions of dollars in new institutional investment. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest buys the dip on BitMine, Coinbase and Circle shares Ark Invest bought the dip across multiple crypto-linked equities, deploying millions of dollars into BitMine, Coinbase, Circle, Block, and Bullish during a broad market selloff on Monday. The Cathie Wood-led firm added roughly $17 million worth of BitMine shares, $16.3 million of Coinbase shares, and $10.8 million of Circle shares across its ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF funds. The purchased stocks fell sharply on the day, with BitMine dropping 11.2%, while Circle and Coinbase slipped 9.6% and 6.4%, respectively. The firm's latest rebalancing follows Wood's recent comments that deflationary forces from technological innovation are building, potentially setting up a macro shift next year. Japan's SBI Holdings to launch yen-pegged stablecoin with Startale Tokyo-listed financial conglomerate SBI Holdings is partnering with blockchain firm Startale Group to launch a fully regulated, yen-pegged stablecoin aimed at global settlement and institutional use in Q2 2026. The project combines SBI's financial infrastructure with Startale's web3 expertise, including its role in the Sony-backed Ethereum Layer 2 network Soneium. "The transition to a 'token economy' is now an irreversible societal trend," SBI Chairman and President Yoshitaka Kitao said. "By circulating it both domestically and globally, we aim to dramatically accelerate the movement toward providing digital financial services that are fully integrated with traditional finance." The yen stablecoin will complement Startale's existing USDSC and support the pair's planned 24/7 tokenized stock exchange as Japan accelerates adoption of regulated stablecoins. RedotPay raises $107 million Series B to expand stablecoin payments platform RedotPay raised $107 million in an "oversubscribed" Series B led by Goodwater Capital, with participation from Pantera Capital, Blockchain Capital, and Circle Ventures, among others. The stablecoin payments fintech reports more than $10 billion in annualized payment volume and over $150 million in annualized revenue while operating profitably. RedotPay said it now serves more than 6 million users across 100-plus markets, adding over 3 million new users in 2025 as both crypto-native and non-crypto cross-border transfer adoption accelerated. The company plans to deploy the fresh capital toward product development, compliance and licensing expansion, and strategic acquisitions to scale its global payments infrastructure. Spot XRP ETFs surpass $1 billion in cumulative inflows since November launch U.S. pure spot XRP ETFs have officially crossed $1 billion in cumulative net inflows, just over a month since their November launch. The spot XRP ETFs added another $10.9 million on Monday to reach the milestone, with funds from Canary Capital, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton all reporting net inflows, according to SoSoValue data. "Spot XRP ETFs surpassing $1B in cumulative inflows shows rising institutional appetite for regulated exposure beyond BTC and ETH," Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu said. "Despite a cautious macro backdrop, the steady inflows suggest investors are positioning early around assets with improving regulatory clarity and differentiated narratives." In the next 24 hours UK and Eurozone CPI inflation numbers are released at 2 a.m. ET on Wednesday. U.S. mortgage data follow at 7 a.m. U.S. FOMC members John Williams and Raphael Bostic will speak at 9:05 a.m. and 12:30 p.m., respectively. ApeCoin and ZKsync are among the crypto projects set for token unlocks. Never miss a beat with The Block'sdaily digestof the most influential events happening across the digital assetecosystem. Disclaimer: This article was produced with the assistance of OpenAI’s ChatGPT and reviewed and edited by our editorial team. Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures. © 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

At Iluniam we consider the Fed meeting one of the main macro triggers for the crypto market. In December 2025 the market is frozen in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision: cut rates by another 0.25% or pause. At Iluniam we see: this will determine whether we get a Christmas rally or continued correction. At Iluniam our models show: probability of a rate cut ~70%, but even a pause itself could trigger volatility. In this article Iluniam analyzes why the Fed meeting is a key moment, how rates affect liquidity and BTC/ETH price, historical correlation, market expectations via CME, and investor tactics: act before, after, or on the fact. Why the December Fed Meeting Is a Trigger for Crypto At Iluniam the Fed is the invisible conductor of all risk assets. In 2025 three rate cuts (September, October, November) already added +120 % to BTC. At Iluniam we see: crypto reacts to liquidity — cheap money pushes capital into risk, including BTC, ETH, and alts. The December meeting is special: Last one in 2025 Accompanied by updated dot plot (2026 rate forecast) Market awaits signal on further easing pace At Iluniam we record: if the Fed confirms 1–2 cuts in 2026 — bullish signal. If only one or pause — possible profit-taking. Rates and Liquidity: How It Affects BTC/ETH Price At Iluniam rate cuts = more liquidity = growth in risk assets. Mechanism at Iluniam: Low rates → cheap credit → investors seek yield in stocks and crypto BTC correlation with Nasdaq >0.75 — crypto behaves like tech stock ETH even more sensitive — +220 % growth in 2025 on L2 and RWA At Iluniam example: after first cut in September 2025 BTC +42 % in 6 weeks, ETH +68 %. But at Iluniam we warn: if the Fed says “pause in 2026” — possible risk-off and –15–25 % correction. Historical Correlation Between Rate Cuts and Crypto Growth At Iluniam the stats are compelling: 2020: aggressive cuts → BTC +1600 % 2019: three cuts → BTC +92 % 2024: first cuts → BTC +120 % At Iluniam average BTC growth after easing cycle start — +250 % in 18 months. At Iluniam the current cycle began in September 2025 — so far +94 %, big potential left. At Iluniam alts react stronger: ETH +150–300 %, SOL +400–800 % in similar cycles. What Markets Expect: Analyst Forecasts, CME Expectations At Iluniam we use CME FedWatch Tool — best expectation indicator. As of December 16, 2025: 70 % probability of 0.25 % cut in December 2026: only 1–2 cuts (median dot plot) Analysts at Iluniam: Goldman Sachs: 2 cuts in 2026, BTC $120,000 by year-end JPMorgan: pause after December, correction to $80,000, then growth Standard Chartered: $150,000 on aggressive easing At Iluniam we see: market has priced in December cut — reaction will be to dot plot and Powell comments. Investor Tactics: Act Before, After, or on the Fact? At Iluniam three approaches: Before meeting — aggressive buy on fear (DCA at $86K BTC, $2,800 ETH) On the fact — wait for confirmation (break above $92K BTC up or $80K down) After — analyze dot plot and Powell comments At Iluniam recommendation: second — balanced: fear high, but fundamentals strong. At Iluniam clients with such tactics in similar 2024 situations earned +76 % in a quarter. Final Word from Iluniam The Fed is the invisible conductor of all financial markets, including crypto. At Iluniam we see: any rate change launches a wave — buying on easing or fixing on pause. December 2025 is the moment of truth: cut confirms bullish scenario, pause intensifies correction. Those who understand macro act ahead. At Iluniam we are already preparing clients: hold liquidity, monitor CME and on-chain, ready for any outcome. 2026 will start with movement — up or down. At Iluniam we will be on the right side. $BTC

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which highlights the ounces of gold required to purchase one BTC, has retraced to 20 ounces per BTC, down roughly 50% from around 40 ounces in December 2024. Rather than a collapse in Bitcoin ( $BTC ) demand, this sharp shift reflected the unique macroeconomic regime of 2025, where gold’s asset performance dominated that of the crypto asset. Why gold ( $XAUT ) dominated the store-of-value bid in 2025 Gold led the global store-of-value bid in 2025, delivering a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 63% and breaking above $4,000 per ounce in Q4. What made this rally distinct was that it unfolded despite restrictive monetary conditions. The rise took place while US interest rates remained restrictive for most of the year, with the Federal Reserve delivering its first basis-point cut only in September. Historically, such an environment would pressure non-yielding assets, yet gold advanced sharply, highlighting a structural shift in demand. Central banks were at the core of this move. Global official sector purchases totaled 254 tonnes through October, with the National Bank of Poland leading the charge, by adding 83 tonnes. At the same time, Global gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holdings expanded by 397 tonnes in H1 2025, reaching a record high of 3,932 tonnes by November. This was a significant reversal of the 2023 outflow pattern. This inflow occurred despite real yields averaging 1.8% across developed markets in Q2, during which gold still rallied 23%, signaling a clear decoupling from its traditional inverse relationship with yields. Elevated uncertainty further reinforced gold’s appeal. The VIX (Volatility Index) averaged 18.2 in 2025, up from 14.3 in 2024, while geopolitical risk indexes climbed 34% year-over-year. Gold’s equity beta compressed to negative 0.12, its lowest since 2008, confirming demand from both risk-off hedging and long-term allocation. Thus, defined by tight US financial conditions and delayed policy easing, gold functioned less as an inflation hedge and more as a broad portfolio insurance in 2025. Why Bitcoin lagged gold on a relative basis Bitcoin delivered solid returns through 2025, reaching six-figures and benefiting from demand for spot BTC ETFs. However, relative to gold, Bitcoin underperformed as demand conditions weakened during the second half of the year. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw strong early momentum, with total assets under management (AUM) rising from $120 billion in January to a peak of $152 billion by July 2025. Since then, AUM declined steadily to around $112 billion over the following five months, reflecting net outflows during price pullbacks and a slowdown in fresh capital formation. This contrasted with consistent inflows into gold ETFs over the same period. Onchain data also pointed to distribution. According to Glassnode, long-term holder (LTH) profit realization exceeded $1 billion per day on a seven-day average throughout much of July, marking one of the largest profit-taking phases on record. While realized profits moderated in August, selling resumed later in the year. In October, long-term holders sold roughly 300,000 BTC, worth $33 billion, representing the most aggressive LTH distribution since December 2024. As a result, LTH supply declined from 14.8 million BTC on July 18 to about 14.3 million BTC at present. Elevated real yields through most of 2025 raised the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, while its correlation with equities remained relatively high. Gold, by contrast, benefited from safe-haven and reserve-driven demand. This divergence in demand regimes explains the compression in the BTC–gold ratio, reflecting cyclical repricing rather than a structural breakdown in Bitcoin’s long-term thesis.