[Fake] PUMP FUN narxiPUMP

I'll admit it's a bit scary to see some of these formerly strong coins nearly retrace their entire move. $PUMP is an example

$AIA wait for 2$ buy $PUMP .This is the best time,pump will go to 1$

First, we were interested in PUMP, then we got uninterested, now we are interested again. Hormones?

Market thoughts (quick read) 1. Macro cycle 2. Medium-term time frame & my plan 1. Macro Uptrend (higher lows) still intact, but very late stage. But at the same time, Bitcoin slipped back into its old range after its first breakout this cycle. We’ve seen it over and over → a range forms → breaks out → another rally follows → until the next range forms. In early 2023, there was a range breakout early in the cycle, and no real immediate follow-up, either. However, there are some differences this time. 1. The range high actually held as support back then, while now we’re breaking back inside. 2. That was early cycle → now we’re late cycle. This type of price action is ‘usually’ more common early cycle, while later things accelerate. A deviation or fake breakout often sends price toward the opposite side of the range, the range low in this case. However, the macro market structure is still intact, and all my moving average friends are pointing out an important level that’s held all cycle, and we’re sitting right on it lol. So while I’m not ignoring the break back into the range, I’m aware the macro trend is still intact, and these kinds of extremes often bring opportunity. Either we lose that level and the probability of more downside, chop, and sideways action increases drastically, or we form a setup and bounce with god-given entries. 2. Medium-term time frame & my plan Currently: - Bitcoin middle of nowhere (losing 3 months range and breaking back inside old range, while on a key level as well) - Total Altcoin market cap rejection at the range high - And thus I'm cautious and waiting for a setup to form before taking new positions. Looking for? Bitcoin: As long as we're below the range high, patiently waiting for the market to give us a risk-on trigger. Risk-on option 1: Reclaim the range high Risk-on option 2: Fake out below the current mid-range and trendline, form a base, and pop back above. Invalidation below the local low. * If we fall below but don’t get the reclaim → no trigger, and I’ll wait for a lower level (or a later reclaim). * Risk-on doesn’t mean adding more Bitcoin exposure: it means I’m more interested in certain altcoin positions. Total Altcoin Marketcap: This turned into the most chaotic chart ever. Excuse me for that, but I hope it still brings over the point. Mid-September, I turned cautious with new positions, as TOTAL3, and took some profit on open plays, even though I expect this range to break out eventually, it was sitting right at resistance. Regardless of what you think, it’s literally the worst entry point ever. (Entry/invalidation > what you think will happen) And still, it feels like no man’s land, no need to rush into positions imo while we’re in this range-high zone, after a rejection, and without enough price action to form a setup. If we keep Bitcoin in the back of our mind, I’d say this: if Bitcoin takes out the mid-range we’ve been watching, we can expect TOTAL3 to take another leg down into the macro mid-range. If Bitcoin then manages to form a base and reclaim that mid-range and trendline, we can look for a similar setup on TOTAL3 and build from there. In that case, some tokens like PUMP, currently sitting at higher time frame support, might break down and consolidate before eventually reclaiming that support (range lows). That would offer us: A) A tight Bitcoin setup with invalidation below the mid-range deviation low B) A TOTAL3 setup around the mid-range C) A setup on coins like PUMP with clear invalidation below the range-low deviation This is something I’d bet on and go risk-on for. But first, we need the scenario to unfold and give us the triggers. Clear invalidation below, great risk/reward. > Other options: If Bitcoin goes for an instant reclaim, for example, we could look at the TOTAL3 chart and maybe expect a local trend break and local range reclaim. And of course, there’s the macro range-high breakout, but that still seems far from us at the moment. (green circles on chart) $ETH $BTC $LTC