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Markets Markets Brief: Can a Bumper Fed Rate Cut Give Stocks Another Boost? US Companies Are Absorbing Tariff Inflation Inflation was in the spotlight last week as commentators sought evidence of tariff impacts and an indication of future interest rate policy in the latest data. But producer price inflation was benign, falling to 2.6% over the last year from 3.1% the previous month. This decline in headline PPI primarily reflects a decline in trade margins, as wholesalers and retailers absorb inflation from tariffs by reducing their profit margins rather than passing these costs onto consumers. This stands in sharp contrast to the postpandemic period when these companies sought to boost their margins under the cover of broader inflationary pressures. This more cautious approach may indicate a lack of confidence in the strength of the US businesses to withstand higher prices. Although consumer price inflation remains above target, it was in line with expectations and consequently reinforced expectations of forthcoming interest rate cuts. In response, the US dollar fell on Thursday, ending the week down 0.3%. Long-Term Treasury Yields Fall Within the Treasury markets, the most notable move came from the 30-year yield, traditionally seen as a measure of financial stability, which fell to its lowest level since the announcement of the tariffs in early April. The show of confidence among investors coincided with news that the Supreme Court will fast-track a judgment on the authority of President Donald Trump to use emergency powers to impose tariffs. Tariffs Show Investors Have Short Memories While the judgment of the Supreme Court is unknown, the waning impact of tariffs in the minds of investors can be seen from the performance of Morningstar’s tariff exposure basket, an unweighted collection of companies identified by our analysts as being especially vulnerable to tariffs. Having fallen on average 22% from the start of the year to April 8 when we launched the basket, the price of these companies has subsequently risen by an average of 25%, with several up over 100%, including Wayfair W, Kohl’s KSS, and Western Digital WDC. This is a reminder of how quickly important economic and geopolitical events can fade in the minds of investors, even while the outlook is still uncertain. Similar insouciance in the face of political and economic uncertainty was also evident in French stocks, which rose 1.8% in a week when the country welcomed its sixth prime minister in five years. It would be easy to interpret these outcomes as evidence that investors are becoming more comfortable with political uncertainty. However, such a conclusion must be tested through the next significant crisis before we could have any confidence in that argument. Oracle Stock Price Soars Technology investors had plenty of news to digest last week, with several capital raisings, including the IPO of Klarna, new products from Apple AAPL, and eye-popping results from Oracle ORCL. Oracle’s impressive growth triggered a 42% increase in its stock price on Wednesday, briefly making founder Larry Ellison the world’s richest man and helping the information technology sector to a 2.8% gain over the week. It also prompted a change in Morningstar analyst Luke Yang’s assessment of Oracle’s fair value estimate. Apple, in contrast, failed to impress investors, a dangerous outcome for a company trading at an expensive valuation. Technology gains also drove the consumer discretionary sector 1.3% higher as Tesla TSLA rose 12.8% on the announcement that it has gained approval to test its robotaxi in Nevada. Performance of the Morningstar US Market Index in September.

📊 Altcoin Season Index from CoinGlass rose from 67 to 78 points Key indicators of the altcoin market have approached the peak values ​​of the end of last year. The Alt Season Index from Blockchain Center shows a similar value. According to its criteria, to confirm the trend, 75% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market value must show a higher return than Bitcoin within 90 days. The last time the metrics reached such values ​​was in December 2024. Then, at the peak, the indicator was 88 points. The capitalization of the altcoin sector exceeded $ 1.8 trillion, which significantly increased the ratio of $ETH and $BTC . There are 5.2% left before updating the historical maximum in total market value. In general, the situation on the market is favorable, altcoins are gradually growing, many coins have already shown impressive results, some are just starting to gain momentum

Switchboard Protocol ( $SWTCH ) rose 23.08% over the last 24h, sharply diverging from its -19.55% 7-day and 30-day trends. This surge coincides with a 125.38% spike in trading volume and aligns with altcoin momentum (Altcoin Season Index +65% monthly). Here are the main factors: Bitget Launchpool incentives – 5.5M SWTCH rewards drove short-term demand. Token launch dynamics – Initial circulating supply release (Sep 9) amid vesting locks. High-risk speculation – Elevated volatility linked to concentrated ownership and mint risks. 1. Exchange Incentives & Demand (Bullish Impact) Overview: SWTCH’s listing on Bitget Launchpool (Sep 9–11) offered 5.5M tokens as staking rewards, attracting users to lock BGB or SWTCH for high APRs. Historical APR peaks (e.g., 1534%) likely fueled participation. What this means: Launchpool events often create artificial scarcity and speculative buying, especially for new tokens. The 24h volume surge ($31.67M) suggests coordinated accumulation, though rewards ended days ago – delayed price action could reflect post-event trading or delayed token distribution. What to watch: SWTCH’s circulating supply (currently 17.16% of total) and unlock schedules, as team tokens (100% initially held) face a 6-month cliff until March 2026. 2. Token Launch Volatility (Mixed Impact) Overview: SWTCH’s token went live on Sep 9 with 24 trading pairs, including Raydium (USDC/SWTCH). Initial price swings (+26.86% on launch day) reflect typical new-token speculation, amplified by low liquidity and mint-enabled contracts. What this means: While the protocol’s $5B TVL and multi-chain oracle use case (e.g., Solana, Ethereum) support long-term utility, Ghanem Lab’s risk report highlights critical concerns: 100% team ownership and 78% supply held by one wallet, raising manipulation risks. Enabled minting could further dilute holders if abused. 3. Altcoin Momentum & Sentiment (Bullish Impact) Overview: SWTCH’s rally aligns with broader altcoin strength (Altcoin Season Index +65% monthly) and neutral crypto sentiment (Fear & Greed Index 51). What this means: Traders may be rotating into low-cap, high-volatility assets like SWTCH amid muted BTC/ETH action (BTC dominance -1.7% weekly). However, SWTCH’s 1.39 turnover ratio signals thin liquidity – gains could reverse swiftly if sentiment sours. Conclusion SWTCH’s rally combines exchange-driven demand, new-token speculation, and altcoin tailwinds, but extreme supply concentration and mint risks warrant caution. Key watch: Can trading volume sustain above $20M to support current levels, or will profit-taking trigger a pullback?

Avantis ( $AVNT ) rose 36.75% over the last 24h, extending its 7-day surge to 249.76%. This aligns with bullish momentum driven by exchange listings, airdrop incentives, and protocol growth. Key drivers: listing (Sep 9–10) – Enhanced accessibility and credibility. Airdrop campaigns – $110k+ incentives across boosted trading activity. RWA narrative + Base ecosystem growth – AVNT positioned as leading perpetuals DEX. Airdrop-Driven Speculation (Mixed Impact) What this means: While airdrops drive short-term volume, they risk sell pressure if recipients dump tokens. AVNT’s 3.16 turnover ratio (volume/market cap) suggests high liquidity, potentially cushioning volatility. RWA Narrative & Protocol Metrics (Bullish Impact) Overview: AVNT’s cumulative trading volume hit $18B, with $23M TVL and 80+ markets, including 22 RWA assets. Its June 2025 $8M Series A (Pantera/Founders Fund) strengthened credibility. What this means: As the largest perpetuals DEX on Base, AVNT benefits from Ethereum’s L2 adoption and RWA sector growth. The 30-day annualized revenue of $15M+ signals sustainable fee generation. Conclusion AVNT’s rally reflects a mix of strategic exchange listings, airdrop-fueled trading, and fundamentals as a high-growth derivatives protocol. However, the 249% weekly gain raises overextension risks if hype cools. Key watch: Can AVNT hold above its pivot point ($0.815) if broader crypto sentiment shifts? lets see