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$BTC Market Now 'Extremely Bearish,' Says QCP: Asia Morning Briefing

RT @BTC_for_Freedom: Money used to represent value. Now it represents debt. Bitcoin brought value back.

The U.S. labor market just threw another curveball at investors. A fresh report showed a massive jump in job cuts last month — and honestly, this one caught even seasoned traders off guard. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, American employers announced 153,074 layoffs in October, marking a 183% increase from September and a 175% surge year-over-year. That’s not just a mild uptick — it’s the highest October total since 2003 and the largest fourth-quarter wave of job losses since 2008. In total, the U.S. has now seen over 1.1 million job cuts in 2024, the most since the pandemic years. Reading through this, it’s hard not to notice how much AI and cost-cutting are reshaping the corporate landscape. Many companies are simply doing more with less — and that often means fewer humans in the loop. It’s both fascinating and worrying at the same time. The shock from this data immediately rippled through markets. Investors began betting heavily that the Federal Reserve could finally pivot in December, with some seeing a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut. On the other hand, the odds of the Fed holding rates steady have fallen to around 30%, according to Kalshi’s prediction markets. In simple terms, Wall Street now believes the slowdown is real — and happening faster than the Fed expected. Still, not everyone’s convinced a rate cut will fix things. Market commentator Scott Melker pointed out something that really stuck with me — that monetary policy can’t patch up deeper, structural shifts driven by automation and AI. The workforce is transforming, and no amount of rate tweaking can change that overnight. Now, despite what looks like a potentially favorable macro backdrop, Bitcoin $BTC isn’t showing much enthusiasm. The price hovered around $102,800 after another volatile session. The bulls tried to push past $103,500, but those attempts fizzled out quickly. Liquidity remains thin, risk appetite is fading, and sentiment across the board feels cautious. From my point of view, Bitcoin seems to be caught in a tug-of-war between macro optimism and short-term uncertainty. Some traders are even eyeing the CME gap near $92,000, which, if filled, could test investor conviction even further. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have also added pressure to the ongoing downtrend, suggesting that institutional interest might be cooling — at least for now. That said, history tells us something interesting: once the Fed clearly shifts toward easing, crypto tends to recover strongly. For now, though, it feels like we’re in that uneasy middle ground — waiting for the next big signal while trying not to blink first.

Apparently this is a hot take now But I still think $BTC goes to new highs this cycle