Cena SILLYSILLY

Yesterday, I made a silly mistake that cost me potential profits and I think you can learn from it. I took two trades that could have casually given me 6%+ gains (risking just 0.5% per trade). But instead? I ended the day with only 1%.

How did I lose money longing ETH in this ETH bull run? I missed $MSTR's massive run and promised myself I wouldn't miss the next crypto treasury play. When $ETH broke $2500, I saw the institutional shift coming and wanted exposure to ETH through equities. I started with positions in $SBET and $BMNR, then discovered $BTCS - a low market cap company trading well below its net asset value (mNAV), which measures how much ETH and other assets the company holds per share. My initial position doubled in just over a week as the stock shot past $8. Feeling like a genius, I kept buying every dip. "What could go wrong?" I thought. "Every institution wants ETH exposure, and this company is sitting on a massive treasury." My small $BTCS position soon dwarfed my other bets. Each dip purchase drove my average cost higher, but I was confident the stock would recover. The problem was, the dipping just wouldn't stop. Eventually, the stock price fell below my average entry, leaving me underwater despite my conviction. Then I stepped back to analyze what was actually happening, and discovered something troubling. The ATM Trap ETH treasury companies need two main tools to accumulate more ETH: convertible debt and At-The-Market (ATM) programs. Convertible debt lets companies borrow money using their stock as collateral - but only works well for companies with good trading volume and rising stock prices. ATM programs allow companies to issue new shares directly to the market for cash, effectively diluting existing shareholders. Here's where it gets concerning. @NasdaqBTCS has thin trading volume, making convertible debt deals difficult. When the SEC approved their $2B ATM program, the stock price dropped even further. Who's selling an ETH treasury company during an ETH bull run? The Short Strategy I believe we're seeing a coordinated play: shorts are deliberately suppressing $BTCS to force them into using their ATM program. By keeping the stock price low, they make convertible debt deals unattractive, leaving ATM as the only option to raise capital. If $BTCS wants to buy more ETH during this bull run, they'll have to dilute shareholders by issuing new shares at depressed prices. It's a clever trap. The shorts profit on the way down, then potentially cover when the company is forced to issue shares at low prices. Meanwhile, $BTCS faces a painful choice: miss the ETH bull run or dilute shareholders. Even CEO @Charles_BTCS has caught on, urging shareholders to disable share lending with their brokers to reduce ammunition for shorts. The Creative Alternatives On the bright side, it is refreshing to see them trying new approaches. BTCS is already using @aave to get access to more liquidity without diluting shareholders. While this is a common approach for DeFi retail users, it's quite innovative for a publicly traded company to leverage DeFi infrastructure this way. This allows BTCS to maintain more ETH exposure when traditional access to liquidity is limited, providing an additional tool alongside conventional funding mechanisms. They're also trying new things that bring energy and attention, such as buying @PudgyPenguins. They bought 3 Pudgy Penguin NFTs, which instantly gave them hundreds of thousands of views and thousands of likes. @LucaNetz also retweeted this purchase to celebrate another institution penguin joining the family. Will this act fix everything immediately? I doubt. However, I believe this is a good try. A worthy attempt to make BTCS different from its peers. At the end of the day, it takes more than a solid mNAV ratio to succeed. It might sound silly, but even for publicly traded companies, they have to look really charming to get the spotlight. I'm holding my position. The fundamentals haven't changed - they still own massive ETH reserves trading at a discount. But this situation has taught me that in crypto treasury plays, sometimes the game isn't just about the underlying asset. It's about who controls the narrative and the mechanics that allow companies to participate in the bull run. Looking forward to more creative plays from the company.

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RT @Sonnyjim22: @JSpitTrades This is such a silly take. The reason we have bubbles is because the market (the collective unconscious) defer…