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The US economy is showing a divided state, with financial markets booming while the real economy is declining. The manufacturing PMI continues to contract, yet the stock market is rising due to concentrated profits in technology and financial companies, resulting in balance sheet inflation. Monetary policy struggles to benefit the real economy, and fiscal policy faces difficulties. The market structure leads to low capital efficiency, widening the gap between rich and poor and increasing social discontent. Cryptocurrency is seen as a relief valve, offering open financial opportunities. The economic cycle oscillates between policy adjustments and market reactions, lacking substantial recovery. Summary generated by Mars AI. The accuracy and completeness of this summary are still being iteratively updated by the Mars AI model.
Due to the reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and the fading rebound of the U.S. stock market, the crypto market continues to experience liquidations, with significant ETF capital outflows and options traders increasing bets on volatility. Institutions warn that technical support for bitcoin above $90,000 is weak.
As long as the system continues to recycle debt into asset bubbles, we will not see a true recovery—only a slow stagnation masked by rising nominal figures.
- 12:45The US SEC issues post-shutdown document processing guidelines, multiple crypto ETFs may take effect soonerChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas citing the latest SEC guidance, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has received more than 900 registration filings during the government shutdown period and is now accelerating the clearing of the backlog. The guidance document indicates that if a registration statement submitted by an issuer during the shutdown period does not include a delayed effectiveness clause (the 8(a) path), it can automatically become effective after 20 days. Issuers can also supplement the delayed clause and apply for acceleration to become effective earlier. Analysts believe this may prompt some crypto ETF issuers who have not yet completed the 8(a) process to speed up their listing process, with Bitwise's XRP ETF considered likely to be among the next batch to advance.
- 12:32Analysts: Capital withdrawal from the crypto market ushers in a period of vulnerabilityChainCatcher news, according to Jinse Finance, as risk aversion sweeps the market, investors have begun to withdraw from cryptocurrencies. Patrick Munnelly of Tickmill Group pointed out in a report that major investment funds, ETF investors, and corporate treasury departments have retreated from bitcoin, removing a key pillar that supported this year's rebound and ushering in a new period of market vulnerability. Statements from Federal Reserve officials expressing caution about further interest rate cuts have also damaged market risk appetite.
- 12:20Analyst: UK Fiscal Turmoil Boosts US DollarAccording to ChainCatcher, citing Jinse Finance, renewed concerns over UK finances are weighing on risk sentiment and boosting the current rise of the US dollar, after reports that the UK government will abandon plans to raise income tax in the November 26 budget. Analysts at Monex Europe stated that this news has injected a risk-off sentiment into the market, providing upward support for the US dollar. The dollar has also been helped by recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, which have cast doubt on the prospect of another rate cut in December.