Analysis: After the epic sell-off by long-term holders following the 10.11 crash, BTC cost structure has undergone significant changes

BlockBeats News, December 22, on-chain data analyst Murphy regards the sharp drop on October 11 as the starting point of the current decline, and analyzes that the BTC chip cost structure has undergone significant changes over the past two months as follows:

The largest accumulation zone for BTC is between $80,000 and $90,000, totaling 2.536 million coins, an increase of 1.874 million coins compared to October 11, making it the strongest support zone so far. The next largest zones are $90,000 to $100,000 (an increase of 324,000 coins), and $100,000 to $110,000 (an increase of 87,000 coins);

Taking the current BTC price as the midpoint, there are a total of 6.168 million coins in a floating loss above, and 7.462 million coins in a floating profit below; excluding Satoshi Nakamoto and long-lost BTC, the current chip structure is almost at a balanced position between upper and lower levels;

From the sharp drop on October 11 to December 20, the profitable positions below decreased by 1.33 million coins, while the trapped positions above with a cost above $110,000 decreased by 902,000 coins. The number of BTC in the $100,000 to $110,000 cost zone did not decrease but instead increased by 87,000 coins. During this round of decline, many top chips were cut, while the rest have remained inactive.

Profitable holders are selling in large quantities. Due to the four-year cycle theory, macro uncertainties, or market concerns such as quantum threats, long-term holders are conducting an epic distribution. Among them, the BTC with a cost in the $60,000 to $70,000 range has seen the largest amount of selling, most of which were accumulated before the 2024 U.S. presidential election. As profits have sharply retraced, holders have become eager to cash out.

Currently, the $70,000 to $80,000 range is a relative "gap zone," with only 190,000 BTC remaining. Very few market participants hold BTC at this price, so if it drops to this range, it may attract a large influx of new liquidity and thus provide support.