Bitcoin ( BTC ) climbed 14.50% from its recent lows of $80,600, inching back toward $93,000 as traders were at odds between a “ comeback ” by the bulls or the start of a bear market.
Key takeaways:
Analysts say Bitcoin’s rebound is a bull trap, with risks extending to as low as $40,000.
Google Trends suggests a rally toward $97,000 before the correction continues.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Among those leaning bearish is CryptoBirb , who remained unconvinced, arguing that the current and upcoming Bitcoin price “rallies are for selling,” not signals of a renewed push toward widely cited year-end targets of $150,000 and beyond.
Bear flag hints at a 16% BTC price dip next
The top arguments in favor of a Bitcoin bull trap mentioned a classic technical pattern dubbed the “bear flag,” a structure that, during downtrends, typically resolves with another leg lower.
Mister Crypto , Celeb Franzen , and several other analysts highlighted the bearish continuation pattern during Bitcoin’s recovery, with some noting that the BTC price can easily plunge toward $80,000.
Source: X
A further examination of the bear flag revealed its technical downside target for December to be around $77,100, calculated by adding the previous downtrend’s height to a potential breakdown point near the $88,000 support.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
That would be down about 16% from the current price levels.
Bitcoin can crash to $40,000 if 2021 fractal repeats
Bitcoin’s current structure mirrors the 2021 cycle almost “exactly,” according to analyst Leshka .
He shared a BTC fractal that consisted of a repeating double-top formation, a sharp breakdown into cycle support, and a deceptive rebound that ultimately formed a bull trap before a more resounding crash.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView/Leshka
In the 2021 analogue, that trap preceded a prolonged decline that cut BTC’s value in half. The 2025 fractal showed a nearly identical setup, with the price hovering within the same support band before an expected breakdown.
Related: 5 market patterns that repeat every December
Leshka warned Bitcoin could revisit the $40,000 region in early 2026, a drop of more than 50% from current levels, if the pattern repeats.
Analyst Alex Wacy highlighted the same downside target, citing Bitcoin’s retreat from its multiyear ascending trendline resistance, which typically results in 70% drawdowns.
Source: X
Bitcoin “crowd is terrified again,” per Google Trends
Last week, Google searches for “Bitcoin bear market” on a five-year time frame hit their highest level on record, as highlighted by analyst AndrewBTC in his Monday post on X , who said the BTC “crowd is terrified again.”
Source: Google Trends/AndrewBTC
Historically, these fears appeared just ahead of BTC market selloffs.
For instance, in May 2021, when BTC hovered near $60,000 before a 50%-plus correction, and again in June 2022, around $26,000, as Bitcoin slid toward the then-cycle bottom of around $15,450.
BTC/USDT weekly chart. Source: TradingView
A spike in the “Bitcoin bear market” Google search trend in August also followed a downturn in the BTC price.
Bitcoin could easily rally toward the $97,000 zone next, but only to trap bulls, AndrewBTC warned, adding:
“Everyone will think the bull run is back, but it isn’t and bear market starts.”
