Next Week's Macro Outlook: Fed Rate Cut is a Foregone Conclusion, Hawk-Dove Debate Draws Attention

ChainCatcher news, according to Golden Ten Data, the Federal Reserve's last interest rate meeting of the year will take place next week. The interest rate decision will be announced at 3:00 a.m. (UTC+8) on Thursday, followed by a monetary policy press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at 3:30 a.m. (UTC+8).

According to CME FedWatch, there is an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week. The upcoming Fed meeting is expected to be one of the most contentious in recent years, with investors focusing on the divisions among policymakers regarding the outlook for rate cuts, as well as the signals Chairman Powell will send about the future direction of policy. Among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), five have expressed opposition or skepticism toward further monetary easing, while three members of the Board support a rate cut. Since 2019, the FOMC has not seen three or more dissenting votes at any meeting, making the dissenters the focus of close attention. Key macroeconomic data and events are as follows:

Tuesday:

Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision; RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference;

Wednesday:

U.S. Q3 Labor Cost Index (quarterly rate); Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision;

Thursday:

Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections; Fed Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 6;

Friday:

Federal Reserve releases U.S. household financial health data in the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report;

2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker delivers a speech on the economic outlook;

2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivers a speech;

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a moderator dialogue ahead of the 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium at the Chicago Fed.

Market closure reminder: On Wednesday, the NYSE will close early at 2:00 a.m. (UTC+8); on Thursday, U.S. stocks, multiple European stock markets, Korean stocks, and Australian stocks will all be closed. Trading of precious metals, U.S. oil, forex, and stock index futures contracts under CME, as well as Brent crude oil futures contracts under ICE, will be suspended for the entire day.