Matrixport Research: Ethereum Upgrade Brings Structural Improvements, Rebound Opportunities Emerging

The current rebound in the crypto market is gradually unfolding, but its internal driving logic has shown clear differentiation. Bitcoin continues its rebound trend, but overall it still operates within a bear market framework; meanwhile, more structurally significant clues in the market are gradually pointing towards Ethereum. Currently, both BTC and ETH derivatives positions have simultaneously fallen back to abnormally low levels, with the position structure having been reset, and the market's sensitivity to new exposures has significantly increased. Against this backdrop, the recent network upgrade completed by Ethereum has had a substantial impact on its underlying economic structure, but these changes have not yet been fully priced in by the market, making it the main trading focus worth paying attention to at this stage.

Position structure reset completed, market more sensitive to new capital inflows

From the perspective of position structure, both Bitcoin and Ethereum currently have futures open interest levels at historically low ranges. This means that the previously accumulated long and short exposures have significantly declined, and the overall market leverage structure has been compressed. In such a position reset environment, once new directional capital begins to enter, price volatility is often quickly amplified. Earlier this year, under similar position conditions, Ethereum once triggered a rise of about 38% in a short period of time. This familiar structure is reappearing, providing the necessary conditions for a staged rebound.

Upgrade effects gradually emerge, Ethereum may outperform Bitcoin in the short term

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's recent network upgrade has directly improved its operational efficiency, cost structure, and the scalability between L1 and L2, further strengthening its economic attributes as Gas, collateral asset, and DeFi core asset. Historical experience shows that improvements in network efficiency often lead to higher on-chain activity levels, which ultimately translate into structural demand for ETH. After the last upgrade, not only did ETH's price rise significantly, but its futures open interest also quickly increased from about $8 billion to $16 billion. Currently, although treasury-type buying from Ethereum-related enterprises is more scattered than before, 35.8% of transactions in the options market still come from buying call options, indicating that some traders have begun to reposition for the upside. In terms of price trajectory, ETH still has room to move towards the 3,300–3,500 range, making participation in the rebound through call spread strategies a choice with relatively clear risk and reward boundaries.

Overall, this round of rebound should be seen more as a tactical opportunity within a bear market environment, rather than a trend reversal. As long as Bitcoin's price remains below the 21-week moving average, its upward movement still belongs to the rebound logic rather than a structural bull market; relatively speaking, greater upward elasticity remains concentrated on the Ethereum side. The combination of position reset and upgrade variables provides ETH with a better short-term risk-reward structure, but this window depends on tactical trading rather than long-term trend judgment. For investors, the key at this stage is to seize the tactical opportunities brought by structural improvements, rather than betting early that a new cycle has already begun.

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