Mortgage Rates Remain Unchanged Despite Fed Reductions Amid Uncertainty from Lack of Data

Current Trends in U.S. Mortgage Refinance Rates

As of November 26, 2025, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage refinance in the United States reached 6.73%, according to Zillow, marking a slight uptick from the previous week's 6.66%. Meanwhile, 15-year refinance rates edged down to 5.65% from 5.68%. Although these rates remain higher than those seen before 2023, experts suggest that homeowners with mortgages at 7% or above may still benefit from refinancing. Notably, Fortune highlighted that conventional 30-year refinance rates varied, reporting a rate of 6.27% on November 28, which illustrates the differences among lenders and loan products.

Federal Reserve Policy and Market Volatility

Investors and analysts are paying close attention to the Federal Reserve’s next moves, with December 2025 shaping up to be a critical month. Despite two benchmark rate reductions by the Fed this year, mortgage rates are still hovering near their highest levels in over a year. Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate, points out that a reduction in the Fed's rate does not always lead to lower mortgage rates, especially given the uncertainty caused by a lack of economic data during the government shutdown. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, notes that this uncertainty has contributed to recent increases in mortgage rates, even as the market anticipates further easing by the Fed.

Refinancing Considerations for Homeowners

Deciding whether to refinance depends on several factors. Homeowners may find it worthwhile to refinance if they can lower their rate by at least one percentage point, as the upfront costs typically range from 2% to 6% of the loan amount. However, the "lock-in effect" remains significant: Redfin reports that 82.8% of mortgage holders have rates below 6%, which discourages many from refinancing despite recent rate drops. Those who secured rates above 7%—a common scenario for buyers in late 2022 and 2023—could benefit more, especially if their lender offers a float-down option to secure a lower rate before closing.

Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Mortgage Rates

The broader economy adds further complexity. According to ResearchAndMarkets, the U.S. construction sector is expected to shrink by 2.7% in 2025 due to trade policies and increased costs. However, investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers are projected to fuel a 1.9% annual growth in construction output by 2029. These developments may indirectly affect mortgage rates by influencing demand for both residential and commercial properties.

What Lies Ahead for Homeowners?

The market is awaiting upcoming economic reports and the Federal Reserve’s December policy announcement. Should inflation data indicate a continued slowdown, mortgage rates could begin to ease. Still, volatility is likely to persist until clearer signals emerge. Homeowners are encouraged to assess their personal situations—including credit scores, debt-to-income ratios, and loan terms—to determine if refinancing is the right move for their financial objectives.