Matrixport: MicroStrategy Unlikely to Be Forced to Sell Coins in the Short Term, but Investors Entering at High Premiums Face the Most Pressure

Jinse Finance reported that Matrixport released a daily chart analysis stating that MicroStrategy remains one of the most representative beneficiary companies in this bitcoin bull market. The market has previously been concerned about whether the company would be forced to sell its bitcoin holdings in the future to repay debts. Based on the current asset-liability structure and debt maturity distribution, we judge that the probability of "being forced to sell bitcoin to repay debts" in the short term is relatively low and is not the main source of current risk. Currently, the greatest pressure is on investors who bought in at high premiums during the peak period. Most of MicroStrategy's financing occurred when the stock price was close to the historical high of $474 and the net asset value (NAV) per share was at its peak. As NAV gradually declined and the premium compressed, the stock price also retraced from $474 to $207, causing significant floating losses for investors who entered at high premiums earlier. Using the current bitcoin rally as a reference, MicroStrategy's current stock price has clearly retraced from previous highs, making its valuation relatively more attractive, and the expectation of being included in the S&P 50 index in December still exists. Even so, this round of adjustment still reminds us that both timing and valuation are equally important, and investors need to be more cautious in controlling entry prices and timing of purchases.