Zcash Halving and Its Impact on the Market: Rarity, Investor Sentiment, and the Outlook for Privacy-Focused Cryptocurrencies

The halving scheduled for November 5, 2025, represents a significant turning point for the crypto sector, only for Zcash (ZEC) itself but also for the broader conversation around blockchain scarcity and speculative trends. The reduction of block rewards from 1.5625 to 0.78125 ZEC per block will further restrict Zcash’s supply, mirroring Bitcoin’s deflationary approach. However, Zcash’s emphasis on privacy, enabled by zk-SNARKs, adds a unique element: 4.9 million ZEC—amounting to 30% of the total supply—are now held in shielded transactions, making it harder to distinguish between speculative interest and genuine usage, as highlighted in a .

Scarcity Drives Price Fluctuations

Scarcity, a fundamental driver of value in the crypto world, is intensified by halving events. Zcash’s upcoming halving in 2025 follows a familiar pattern seen with Bitcoin: as new supply drops, prices are pushed higher while miners adapt to reduced rewards. Historical trends support this: after the 2020 halving, ZEC jumped 500%, and following the 2024 halving, it rose 92% in Q4 2025, according to a

. This cycle, though, seems to be having an even greater impact. Since early October 2025, Zcash’s price has soared by 472% to reach $420, driven by increased institutional involvement and a rising demand for privacy, as the same report notes.

The Grayscale Zcash Trust, which oversees $137 million in assets, demonstrates the faith of institutional investors. Still, this rapid ascent prompts debate: is ZEC’s rally a sign of its fundamental worth, or is it fueled by speculative hype and FOMO? The latter appears likely. Open Interest (OI) for ZEC has reached a record $1.13 billion, indicating strong bullish sentiment but also a higher risk of sharp corrections, according to a

.

Zcash and Bitcoin: Different Journeys, Common Scarcity

Although both Zcash and

use halving to enforce scarcity, their market trajectories differ. While Bitcoin’s price has hovered near $103,000 in recent months, ZEC has skyrocketed 1,172% since the start of the year, reaching $589 by November 6, 2025, as reported by . This contrast underscores Zcash’s role as a hedge during crypto market downturns. Experts attribute this to Zcash’s privacy features: 28% of its coins are now shielded, providing a practical use case beyond speculation, according to the same report.

Arthur Hayes, a well-known crypto analyst, suggests that Zcash’s price may continue to move inversely to Bitcoin. “When Bitcoin faces challenges, investors often turn to privacy coins like Zcash, which combine scarcity with anonymity,” he explained in a

However, this trend is not without its dangers. Privacy coins remain under regulatory scrutiny, especially as authorities in the U.S. and EU tighten controls on anonymous transactions.

Speculation and Future Prospects

The 2025 halving has sparked a wave of speculation. Large holders have accumulated ZEC on Binance, including $30 million in spot purchases, reflecting both institutional and retail optimism, according to a

Still, technical signals urge caution. If ZEC cannot surpass the $500 resistance, a “double-top” pattern could emerge. Analysts foresee ZEC trading between $500 and $750, depending on ongoing demand for privacy and the regulatory environment, as stated in a .

Long-term prospects for Zcash depend on its ability to maintain both scarcity and practical use. With support for mobile wallets and enterprise privacy solutions, Zcash is positioned as a leader among privacy coins. Nonetheless, competition from projects like Monero and new zero-knowledge technologies could challenge its dominance.

Risks and Realities

The path ahead for Zcash after the halving is filled with obstacles. Selling pressure from miners, regulatory ambiguity, and the volatile nature of crypto markets could result in significant price swings. Additionally, much of the rally may already be reflected in the price, given ZEC’s 950% increase from its September 2025 lows, according to a

Nevertheless, Zcash’s deflationary structure and rising institutional interest make a strong case for its future. If shielded transactions continue to expand, Zcash could reshape the role of privacy in blockchain networks. For now, the market remains attentive, waiting to see if this halving will solidify Zcash’s reputation as a leader in digital privacy or reveal its potential weaknesses.