4E: Crypto Market Flash Crashes by $1.2 Billion; Whales Take Losses; Bitcoin Cycle Patterns May Be Ending

According to 4E's observation, the crypto market experienced a sudden flash crash on Monday, with over $1.2 billion in liquidations within 24 hours, of which more than 90% were long positions. Bitcoin plunged from $108,000 to $105,000, while Ethereum dropped sharply from $3,700 to $3,500. Both saw liquidation amounts exceeding $100 million within an hour. During the crash, the Bitcoin premium index on a certain exchange remained around -$30, indicating that US investors may have been the main driving force behind the sell-off. Monitoring platform "Embers" showed that the account known as the "Top 100% Win Rate Whale" closed long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL worth $258 million eight hours ago, incurring a loss of $15.65 million, nearly wiping out all profits from the past 20 days. Currently, this account still holds about $148 million in long positions, with an unrealized loss of $18.86 million. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that the Bitcoin "four-year halving cycle" model may no longer be applicable. His analysis indicated that whale unrealized profit margins are in a neutral range, mining companies continue to expand, ETF and MicroStrategy buying has slowed, short-term whales are near breakeven, while long-term whales still maintain about 53% profit. Overall on-chain data shows that the market has shifted from being cycle-driven to institutionally liquidity-driven. 4E's commentary: The flash crash reflects the fragility of a highly leveraged structure and the correlated pressure from rising US Treasury yields. If Bitcoin enters a "cycle-less" phase, future volatility will depend more on the pace of institutional capital and macro liquidity signals, rather than historical experience.