On October 29, 2025, the Bitcoin strategic reserve bill proposed by the French Parliament has become a focal point in the cryptocurrency market. This proposal not only marks a strategic move by a European country towards digital assets, but also resonates with the accumulation behavior of global institutional investors and large holders, reinforcing market expectations of supply tightening.
I. Core Framework and Strategic Implications of the French Strategic Reserve Proposal
Background and Objectives of the Proposal.On October 28, the French Parliament reviewed a bill led by UDR party member Éric Ciotti to establish a national Bitcoin strategic reserve fund, aiming to accumulate 420,000 bitcoins (2% of total supply, worth about $4.8 billion) within 7 to 8 years, to be managed by public administrative agencies.
Funding Sources and Mechanism.Funding relies on France’s nuclear and hydropower resources to support domestic mining, reducing procurement costs to $0.03 per kWh (KuCoin Flash report, October 28, 2025). The proposal prohibits the issuance of CBDC, shifting support to decentralized crypto assets.
Supporting Measures and Expected Impact.Introduction of a regulatory sandbox mechanism to attract crypto companies to set up operations, expected to drive over 10 billion euros in investment (Yahoo Finance analysis, October 28, 2025). Initial support rate within the UDR party reaches 80%. MP Ciotti stated on X platform: “This move is a necessary step to safeguard France’s financial sovereignty, positioning Bitcoin as a strategic asset to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks.”
Strategic Interpretation.Reflects Europe’s rethinking of the traditional monetary system. The EU faces a 2.8% inflation rate in the eurozone, highlighting Bitcoin’s “digital gold” attribute. If passed by Parliament in early 2026, it could trigger other European countries to follow suit, forming a regional reserve competition.
II. Accumulation Dynamics of Institutional Investors and Whales
Key Institutional Actions
The release of the French proposal quickly stimulated global accumulation behavior.
● At the institutional level, BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $250 million in the past 24 hours, with total holdings rising to over 350,000 bitcoins.
● Ark Invest is also actively positioning, adding $120 million worth of bitcoin holdings through ETF channels.
On-chain Whale Behavior
● On-chain data shows that large holders (whales, addresses holding more than 1,000 bitcoins) exhibited significant outflow activity from October 28 to 29, including several outflows exceeding 500 BTC each, totaling about 2,763 bitcoins, transferred to cold storage wallets, further reinforcing supply tightening expectations.
● Typical cases include the BitcoinOG 1011short address, which transferred out 200 bitcoins (worth about $22.5 million) in the past 24 hours, with a total withdrawal of 400 bitcoins in October.
● Another high-success-rate address, 0xc2a3, increased its holdings by 500 bitcoins after closing some long positions, recording a profit of $1.4 million.
Entity | Key Action | Specific Data |
BlackRock IBIT ETF | Increased Bitcoin holdings | +2,500 BTC (worth $250 million), total holdings 350,000 BTC |
Ark Invest | ETF channel purchase | +1,200 BTC ($120 million inflow) |
BitcoinOG 1011short (Whale) | Transferred to cold storage | +200 BTC ($22.5 million), 400 BTC accumulated in October |
0xc2a3 (High-success-rate whale) | Increased position after closing longs | Net increase +500 BTC, profit $1.4 million |
Multiple whale address clusters | Net withdrawal | +1,100 BTC, total holdings surpass 1-year moving average |
III. Market Impact Assessment
Price and Trading: Strengthened Supply Tightening Expectations
Supply Pressure: Continuous accumulation at the national and institutional level directly reduces the circulating supply on exchanges. Data shows that bitcoin balances on exchanges are at their lowest levels in recent years. This “illiquidity” status is one of the core long-term bullish logics.
Technical Pattern: After volatility at the beginning of October, bitcoin price successfully held key support levels and once broke through $114,000. The next key resistance level the market is watching is around $117,500. If this is effectively breached, it could open up upside space towards $125,000.
On-chain Fundamentals: Confidence Shaken and Reshaped Among Long-term Holders
Position Changes: On one hand, some whales are actively increasing positions; but on-chain data also captures another scene: long-dormant wallets holding for 3-5 years have recently shown activity, with a single transaction moving over 4,657 BTC. This behavior usually means early investors are taking profits or adjusting positions at high prices, which may bring short-term selling pressure but also injects new liquidity into the market.
Network Health: Bitcoin network’s hashrate remains stable. If France’s nuclear mining proposal is implemented, it is expected to contribute an incremental 5% to global computing power, further strengthening network security.
Capital and Liquidity: Institutional Channels Remain Open
ETF-led Inflows: Bitcoin spot ETFs achieved a net inflow of $4.21 billion in October, completely reversing the net outflow trend of September. This is the most direct indicator of institutional bullishness.
Altcoin ETF Expansion: The first batch of US altcoin ETFs covering Solana, Litecoin, and other assets went live on October 28, with another 155 similar products awaiting approval. This signals a large influx of liquidity about to enter the broader crypto market.
IV. Market KOL Opinions
● Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO:
He believes Bitcoin’s traditional “four-year cycle” is no longer valid, and future prices will be dominated by the global liquidity cycle (especially the monetary policies of China and the US). As long as money printing continues, Bitcoin’s upward trend will not change.
● Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO:
He proposed the “5.4-year cycle” theory, believing that the global debt refinancing cycle is the key driver. His model predicts that Bitcoin will reach a liquidity peak in Q2 2026, with a target price of $200,000 to $450,000.
● Pierre Laurent, CryptoFrance Institute researcher:
He believes the French proposal is a reshaping of the global monetary landscape. With the cost advantage of nuclear power, accumulating 420,000 bitcoins will lock up supply and could push the average price above $150,000 in 2026.
Current Market Sentiment Summary:
Overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with FOMO (fear of missing out) beginning to spread among retail investors. However, some experienced traders and early investors show more complex emotions, with both profit-taking and concerns about high leverage risks.
V. Risk Considerations and Tracking Recommendations
Overall, the French Parliament’s proposal and the accumulation behavior of global institutions together constitute a strong structural bullish narrative.
They simultaneously validate Bitcoin’s asset attributes as “digital gold” and a store of value from both the sovereign and traditional financial levels.
However, investors must remain rational. The current bullishness is more reflected in sentiment and expectations, while a true bull market requires sustained substantial capital inflows and a healthy macro environment. It is recommended to take a long-term view, and while paying attention to short-term hotspots, focus more on tracking core data such as Federal Reserve policy and ETF capital flows that determine long-term trends.
