Uptober Turns Downbeat as Bitcoin Faces Its Weakest October Since 2018

Crypto investors were anticipating more gains as October approached. The month has been nicknamed “Uptober” due to its long history of significant gains for Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. However, due to heightened global trade tensions, October 2025 has been anything but bullish.

Following one of the largest single-day liquidation event, which erased around $20 billion in positions on October 10, much of this Uptober has been characterized by losses. The crypto market is still in a state of disarray, some two weeks later.

Despite Bitcoin’s history of strong rallies, this year’s October is looking like one of its weakest. The price of bitcoin has been volatile after an initial leap to record highs. If the present trend continues, Bitcoin may have its worst October since 2018.

The flagship cryptocurrency and the overall crypto market’s historically bullish October has seen its momentum halt.  A 4% drop would solidify Bitcoin’s worst performance in almost a decade, according to data from CoinGlass, which shows the cryptocurrency is presently 2.77% below its monthly starting price. In contrast, September had a gain of almost 5.16%.

In October of 2021, during a thriving market, the highest monthly returns in the previous five years were 39%. Nevertheless, a 5% rise was seen in the returns in 2022. The returns for 2023 were 28% and for 2024 they were 10%. The best monthly return this year was in May, at 11%.

The threat by President Trump of imposing an additional 100% tariff on China, beginning Nov. 1, sparked the selloff on Oct. 10. The low liquidity of many altcoins made them more vulnerable than bitcoin. Last week, Bitcoin’s decline below $107,000 allegedly caused $1.2 billion in liquidations, wiping out long positions that were established during September’s recovery. During the same time span, larger cryptocurrencies like Ethereum , Solana, and BNB decreased by 3-8%, while smaller tokens like DOGE and ADA plunged by more than 20%.

Andrei Grachev, Founding Partner at Falcon Finance stated:

“This Uptober comes against a very different backdrop. The United States faces shutdown risk and rate uncertainty, while global markets remain cautious. In that environment, Uptober is not just a test of seasonality. It is a test of whether crypto can decouple from macro stress.  If Bitcoin and stablecoins rally despite fiscal gridlock, the narrative of crypto as a hedge against dysfunction will be reinforced. For retail, this is the paradox. Macro stress looks bearish in the short term, but it can be bullish for the long-term case. The implication is that Uptober this year is more than a seasonal story. It is a stress test for crypto’s independence.”

The price of bitcoin has however stabilized, while smaller coins are still finding their foothold. Data from TradingView shows that since October 10th, the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies except bitcoin has dropped by more than 18%.

Ultimate Fate is Still Up in the Air

On a deeper level, opinions are still divided. Even if positioning is being reset, the fear index has been at 25 for days, indicating that confidence is still low. However, instead of signalling a departure, on-chain activity, particularly from whales and ETF inflows, still indicates accumulation.

Even while macro volatility kept the upside confined, analysts are confident that the markets may recover as long-term fundamentals attract investors back. Bitcoin maintained the important $105,000 level during the flush, which appears to have steadied confidence.

Renowned economist Timothy Peterson claims that the majority of October’s gains usually happen in the month’s latter half. He went on to say that the markets may get a strong signal if the Federal Reserve decided to cease quantitative tightening at its meeting on October 29.

However, this does not represent a return to full risk-taking. The market is preparing for a gradual ascent after the record liquidation event in October, which stunned leveraged traders by wiping off billions.

The month of October has a history of surprising people, even if it doesn’t live up to its name this year. With only one week to go in October, Bitcoin’s ultimate fate is still up in the air as market participants weigh seasonal expectations against macroeconomic challenges.