As inflation eases slightly, will XRP break its downward trend?

The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has given the crypto market something to think about. September’s inflation rate came in at 3%—still high, but slightly below the expected 3.1%. This marginally lower-than-expected result eased concerns about a faster tightening cycle and injected some optimism into risk assets. The XRP price chart also reflects this shift, with the token attempting to climb back above a key resistance level after weeks of decline.

Why Inflation Matters for the Current XRP Price Prediction

Cryptocurrencies, especially XRP, tend to react sharply to macroeconomic changes as they are on the riskier end of the investment spectrum. Lower-than-expected CPI data suggests the Federal Reserve may delay any surprise rate hikes. This improves market liquidity sentiment—something XRP badly needs after a prolonged decline.

However, the CPI report also highlights that the pace of cooling inflation is not sufficient to satisfy the Federal Reserve. Gasoline prices rose 4.1% in September, and tariffs quietly pushed up import costs. This combination means that unless inflation data continues to soften in the coming months, any crypto rebound will remain fragile.

Technical Analysis: XRP Price Attempts a Reversal

XRP/USD Daily Chart- TradingView

Looking at the XRP/USD daily chart, the token is trading near $2.53, up about 3.3% on the day. After a sharp drop in early October, the XRP price found support near $2.20, with buyers stepping in to defend multi-month lows.

The Bollinger Bands show the price emerging from the lower band—an early signal of mean reversion. The middle band (around $2.52) has acted as dynamic resistance for nearly three weeks, and XRP is now testing this level again. A daily close above $2.55 could open the way to $2.80, where the upper Bollinger Band and previous pivot resistance converge.

If the XRP price fails to sustain this breakout attempt, the next support lies near $2.25, with a deeper downside target around $2.05 if bearish sentiment returns.

Volume and Sentiment Signals

Since October 18, trading volume has slightly improved, indicating renewed trader participation. Recent green Heikin Ashi candles show longer bodies, suggesting bullish momentum is building after a shakeout phase. However, compared to earlier moves, the rebound lacks strong conviction, meaning any reversal needs confirmation through higher volume and sustained closes above the 20-day moving average.

Market sentiment remains mixed. While easing inflation is mildly bullish, macro uncertainties—such as tariffs and the ongoing US government shutdown—could still cap upside momentum. XRP price traders appear to be cautiously re-entering positions but are setting tight stop-loss levels.

Short-term XRP Price Prediction: Testing Resistance Ahead

If the XRP price can maintain momentum above $2.55, short-term targets are $2.75 and $2.95. A breakout above $3.00 would be a significant technical signal, potentially marking the start of a broader recovery trend.

However, failure to hold above $2.45–2.50 could trigger renewed selling pressure, sending the XRP price back to the $2.20 area. Given that inflation has not accelerated but has yet to decisively cool, the market may oscillate between optimism and caution—currently keeping XRP within a tight range.

Long-term XRP Price Prediction: Inflation, Tariffs, and Macro Pressures

The macro backdrop still defines XRP’s trajectory more than any single chart setup. Persistent inflation keeps the Federal Reserve defensive, limiting the liquidity needed to fuel major crypto rebounds. Meanwhile, tariff-driven cost pressures and energy price volatility continue to impact risk appetite.

However, the good news is that inflation is no longer surprising the market. If the next CPI reports show continued drift toward 2.5% or lower, XRP could eventually regain strength as investors reprice risk and re-enter altcoins.

$XRP is showing signs of stability for the first time after weeks of pain. While the CPI data is not stellar, it has eased some macro pressures. However, this remains a fragile setup: the XRP price needs to confirm a breakout above $2.55 with follow-through volume to validate a trend reversal. Until then, the market remains in wait-and-see mode—watching inflation data and XRP’s ability to defend its support zone.

In short, the next CPI report may determine whether XRP’s rebound turns into a breakout or is just another false start.