🎯 Event Review
During yesterday's trading session, ETH exhibited intense price volatility. Within just a few dozen minutes, its price first surged upward and then experienced a significant pullback. The market showed unusually active buying and selling competition, influenced by both external macroeconomic and policy uncertainties as well as internal liquidity constraints and high leverage risk shocks. Overall, this volatility reflected the fierce battle between bulls and bears and the rapid shift in market sentiment at critical moments.
⏱️ Timeline
18:30
ETH price hovered in the $3,679–$3,685 range, at which point signals of external economic risks and internal capital volatility pressures emerged in the market.18:30–19:16
Within 46 minutes, ETH price quickly rose from $3,679 to $3,805, an increase of about 3.42%. During this phase, buying was concentrated, indicating that market funds were adjusting positions and quickly replenishing holdings.18:30–19:25
Another set of data shows the price rising from $3,685 to $3,817, an increase of about 3.60%, reflecting the continuous push by bulls and partial liquidity release.19:45
Subsequently, ETH price pulled back to $3,778.66. This post-surge adjustment suggests the market faced some profit-taking pressure at higher levels.
🔍 Cause Analysis
This sharp fluctuation in ETH was mainly influenced by the following two factors:
External Macroeconomic and Policy Uncertainty
Global trade frictions, expectations of tariff policy adjustments, and rising credit market risks have continuously stimulated risk-averse sentiment in the market. Recently, escalating tensions between the US and China, coupled with hints from certain high-level officials about adjusting tariff policies, have caused localized turbulence in traditional financial markets, which in turn spilled over into the digital asset sector.Internal Liquidity Pressure and High Leverage Risk
Recently, a large number of whale positions have been liquidated, and leveraged short positions have frequently been wiped out, triggering sharp changes in local liquidity. Data shows that within the past hour, the total amount of liquidations across the network reached $8 million, with short positions accounting for nearly 80%. Such high-leverage trading and rapid capital outflows caused ETH prices to surge and plunge in a short period, resulting in extreme market behavior.
📊 Technical Analysis
Based on [ETH/USDT Binance USDT Perpetual 45-minute] candlestick data, we can observe the following technical characteristics:
Indicator Trends
The KDJ indicator shows obvious divergence, indicating that recent upward momentum is strengthening.
The OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator has crossed above its moving average, releasing a buy signal.
Trading Volume
Trading volume increased by about 72.92% compared to previous cycles, indicating a significant rise in market activity.
Current trading volume is significantly higher than the 10-day average and ranks in the top 10% of the past 10 cycles, showing a large concentration of funds in the short term.
Moving Average Arrangement
MA5, MA10, and MA20 are overall in a bearish arrangement, and the price is running below the EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120 moving averages, suggesting a weak short-term trend.
The slope of EMA20 is steeply downward (about -1.01%), corroborated by EMA24 (-0.96%) and EMA52 (-0.68%), indicating clear medium- to long-term bearish pressure.
Other Technical Signals
RSI has broken above the upward trendline, showing a local short-term bullish signal.
TD Sequential is in a bullish Setup phase (7/9), suggesting that after some adjustment, a short-term rebound opportunity may arise.
Overall, although some technical indicators show local reversal signals, the overall moving average system and trading volume structure still indicate significant medium- to long-term downward pressure, with the market exhibiting both short-term volatility and medium- to long-term weakness.
🔮 Market Outlook
Looking ahead, the ETH market is expected to continue maintaining high volatility:
Short-term Trading Suggestions
In the current context of fierce bull-bear competition, short-term traders can focus on key support and resistance zones, using local reversal opportunities for swing trading. However, they must guard against the risk of chain liquidations triggered by high leverage and large-scale liquidations.Medium- to Long-term Risk Warning
If macroeconomic and policy risks persist, coupled with unresolved internal liquidity issues, there may be adjustment pressure in the medium to long term. Therefore, conservative investors should focus on risk control, temporarily hold off on large-scale investments, and wait for the situation to become clearer.Key Focus
Market participants need to closely monitor international economic trends, as well as the latest developments in US-China trade and credit markets. Technically, attention should be paid to whether reversal signals such as RSI and TD Sequential materialize, and whether the moving average system shows signs of effective stabilization.
In summary, although ETH prices occasionally show brief rebound signals amid sharp volatility, overall risk remains high. Rationally viewing market fluctuations, focusing on capital management and risk hedging, will be key to responding steadily to market volatility in the coming period.
