Bitcoin volatility spikes as traders bet big on $145k October price target

Bitcoin and Ethereum traders remain optimistic about the market’s trajectory even after this week’s price corrections rattled digital assets across the board.

According to Derive.xyz, an on-chain derivatives platform, market participants are assigning a 22% probability that Ethereum will surpass $5,000 by Oct. 31. Bitcoin is viewed even more favorably, with traders pricing in a 34% chance of the asset climbing beyond $120,000 within the same timeframe.

Meanwhile, longer-term projections extend this bullish outlook into December.

Data from Derive suggest Ethereum has a 12% chance of crossing $7,000, while Bitcoin has a 26% probability of exceeding $135,000. These forecasts underscore how traders are positioning around potential catalysts despite short-term turbulence.

The optimism follows heightened market volatility that pushed Bitcoin and Ethereum to retest $110,000 and $4,000, respectively.

According to Derive, the record $1.7 billion market liquidations accelerated the move, sending Ethereum’s implied volatility from 57% to nearly 70% on Monday. Bitcoin’s volatility also edged higher, climbing to about 30%.

Considering BTC has spent the past month trading with below-average volatility, Derive founder Nick Forster told CryptoSlate that October could mark a turning point as digital asset treasuries prepare for more aggressive activity.

He noted:

“On Derive.xyz, traders are positioning for a major upside. For BTC, there’s a large cluster of calls around $145,000/$155,000/$170,000 for the October 31 expiry. For ETH, traders are betting on a 10%+ move with concentration at $5,000/$5,200 strikes.”

‘Alt Hyperliquid’

Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, a new sector of decentralized exchanges is beginning to capture attention.

Forster highlighted the rise of so-called “alt hyperliquids,” projects designed to become liquidity hubs across perpetuals, prediction markets, and spot trading.

One of the most prominent examples is ASTER, the native token of a perpetual DEX backed by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao. Notably, the platform had flipped Hyperliquid’s daily volume for the first time on Sept. 23.

This has translated into significant price gains for the token, with ASTER rallying more than 2000% since launch to trade at an all-time high of $2.26, according to CryptoSlate’s data. Additionally, the total value of assets locked on the platform has surged to $1.79 billion, based on DefiLlama data.

Meanwhile, Avantis (AVNT), a perpetual DEX operating on Base, has posted similar momentum, with its token doubling from $1.08 to $2.21 in recent weeks.

Forster said:

“This wave of interest points to a new DeFi trend [reminiscent of] the rise of alternative Layer 1s in the 2020–2022 cycle.”

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