Bitcoin Poised for $118k Surge Amid Sovereign Sell-Off Risks to Rally

Bitcoin’s recent price movement has once again captured the spotlight, as experts point to key support and breakout points against a backdrop of shifting macroeconomic factors. On September 18, 2025,

(BTC) briefly climbed above $117,000 after the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate reduction of the year, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 4.00-4.25% range. Although there was initial enthusiasm, the market response was mixed, with Bitcoin stabilizing between $115,000 and $117,000 in the following sessions. Experts now identify $109,500 as a crucial support threshold, while a move beyond $118,000 could indicate further bullish momentum.

The Federal Reserve’s shift toward looser monetary policy has typically benefited Bitcoin by making non-yielding assets more attractive, but the subdued reaction after the rate cut has sparked some concerns. Ryan Lee, Bitget Exchange’s chief analyst, observed that Bitcoin has often dropped 5–8% after rate reductions before resuming its upward movement, suggesting a potential “sell the news” scenario. Short-term price swings remain pronounced as traders weigh the likelihood of additional rate cuts against possible selling from sovereign entities. For example, Bhutan’s recent transfer of $107 million in Bitcoin to new wallets has drawn attention, yet the nation still retains 9,652

valued at $1.13 billion, implying that immediate liquidation may not be central to its broader approach.

Looking forward, fourth-quarter price forecasts are gaining momentum, with some analysts projecting highs between $131,000 and $135,000. These predictions are based on expectations of continued loose monetary policy and ongoing inflows from ETFs.

and are also anticipated to perform well in the short term, fueled by network enhancements and speculative interest. Nonetheless, the journey to these targets is not without hazards. Should Bhutan or other major holders decide to offload large amounts of their assets, it could exert downward pressure, especially since the top 2% of addresses control more than 90% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

Investors are keeping a close eye on both macroeconomic signals and blockchain activity. The Federal Reserve’s median estimate of 50 basis points in total rate cuts for 2025 has dampened some of the immediate optimism, while the gap between futures and spot market volumes—marked by a surge in leveraged trades without corresponding spot demand—reveals underlying market vulnerability. Analysts warn that if buying momentum does not persist, unwinding leveraged positions could trigger price pullbacks.

The interaction between central bank decisions and sovereign Bitcoin management is altering the market landscape. Bhutan’s calculated transfers, together with the Fed’s rate adjustments, highlight the intricate nature of price formation in a market increasingly shaped by institutional and governmental players. While Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong in a low-interest environment, the timing and magnitude of large-scale sales could drive short-term price fluctuations.