XRP ETFs: Regulatory Approval or Market Wake-Up Call?

The recent move by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve standardized rules for listing crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has fueled further debate over XRP’s potential price direction, although experts warn that expectations for a $100 price point are unrealistic. This regulatory update, which brings crypto ETFs in line with established asset categories, enables exchanges such as

, Nasdaq, and NYSE to fast-track applications for ETFs that fit the set requirements, removing the need for separate 19-b filings for each product. The change comes after Ripple’s favorable court ruling against the SEC, establishing that programmatic sales are not classified as securities. Although this regulatory certainty has led to 11 new XRP ETF filings—including proposals from 21Shares, Grayscale, and WisdomTree—analysts highlight that the actual performance of XRP will depend on institutional participation, evolving market forces, and the broader global economy [ 1 ].

Debuting on September 18, 2025, the REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) is the first U.S. fund directly tied to XRP and serves as an important measure of investor demand. The fund blends direct XRP assets with derivative instruments and other XRP ETFs, signaling a robust interest from institutional investors. On its launch date, XRP’s value climbed 1.53% to $3.0838, crossing the $3 mark and testing significant resistance at $3.2 and $3.66. Still, technical analysts note that continued upward momentum will rely on strong flows into

and related spot ETFs, with seven more proposals awaiting SEC decisions from October 18 to 25 [ 1 ].

Market outcomes will be shaped by both regulatory decisions and outside influences. Positive factors include the SEC giving the green light to spot ETFs, top corporations adopting XRP as a treasury asset, and advancements on the Market Structure Bill, which could drive further use in cross-border payments. On the other hand, setbacks like a delayed banking license for Ripple, disappointing ETF inflows, or governmental opposition to crypto regulations could push XRP’s value below the $3 level. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas puts the chance of XRP ETF approval at 95%, estimating up to $8 billion in inflows within the first year if approved [ 3 ].

analysts echo the $8 billion projection, but caution that real institutional buying will hinge on XRP being officially recognized as a commodity and on regulatory stability [ 3 ].

Despite the positive sentiment, analysts urge caution due to significant risks. According to a 2025 CoinMarketCap report, there is a 10% chance the SEC could reject an ETF, possibly causing a drop to $1.40–$1.75. Conditional or limited approvals might cap XRP gains at $2.60–$2.90, while full approvals could spark short-term jumps to $3.50–$4.20. Attaining higher prices such as $7.80 or beyond would require widespread adoption and supportive economic conditions, as well as increased interest in ETFs for other altcoins like

, , and [ 4 ].

The possibility of XRP reaching $100 remains highly speculative. Historical trends indicate that, even with ETF approval, XRP’s price is unlikely to break past $7.80 unless there are dramatic changes in the global remittance sector or revolutionary threats such as quantum computing impact blockchain security. Experts also stress that approval odds, like Bloomberg’s 95% figure, should not be mistaken for actual price forecasts. Although the SEC’s unified approach has energized the market, XRP’s future value will ultimately depend on institutional trust, competition from other cryptocurrencies, and economic uncertainties.