Oracle’s gamble on artificial intelligence creates and destroys billionaire fortunes within a single day

Larry Ellison experienced a staggering $34 billion fluctuation in his wealth after Oracle’s shares soared almost 40% in a day, sparked by an unexpected $300 billion AI infrastructure agreement with OpenAI. Hailed as one of the most significant cloud contracts ever, the deal pushed Oracle’s market value to a record intraday peak of $970 billion. For a brief period, Ellison became the wealthiest individual on the planet, with his net worth approaching $400 billion. However, by the market's close, Oracle's stock settled at $328, adjusting Ellison’s fortune to $383 billion, leaving him tied with Elon Musk until a modest increase in

shares put Musk back in the lead.

This agreement, forming part of Oracle’s larger $455 billion backlog of performance obligations, marks a significant strategic shift for the company into AI infrastructure. Oracle’s determined investment in premium

GPUs—made possible by Ellison’s strong relationship with Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang—has made Oracle a major player in powering future AI models. The company’s cloud infrastructure division is projected to achieve 77% revenue growth to $18 billion this fiscal year, with forecasts showing a potential rise to $144 billion within four years.

Nonetheless, the feasibility of such a large-scale deal is drawing skepticism. Experts caution that OpenAI’s estimated $12 billion annual revenues are far below the $60 billion per year needed to meet the

contract’s demands. Reports indicate OpenAI would require hundreds of billions in income to keep the agreement viable, raising concerns over potential defaults or renegotiations. Moody’s Ratings has recognized Oracle’s “enormous potential” in AI, but also pointed out the risk of depending on a single, untested client for much of its future income and warned that the company’s debt could rise sharply if borrowing outpaces earnings.

The wider AI industry is also being watched for indications of an emerging bubble. The Oracle-OpenAI arrangement has reignited fears of overinflated valuations, especially after a recent MIT report revealed that 95% of AI pilot initiatives fail to produce significant returns, despite over $40 billion invested. OpenAI chief Sam Altman has openly voiced worries about a private market bubble in AI, while expert Gary Marcus labeled the Oracle agreement as “peak bubble.” Detractors argue that the financial setup—essentially a non-binding deal with a nonprofit that has yet to obtain for-profit status—raises unrealistic expectations among investors and could set the stage for a market correction.

Ellison’s brief stint at the top of the wealth charts underscores a fundamental change in the tech landscape. Unlike Musk, whose net worth is tied to Tesla’s often unpredictable stock, Ellison’s gains are attributed to Oracle’s AI-fueled cloud infrastructure expansion, which has nearly doubled since the start of the year. This surge has established Oracle as a formidable force in the AI infrastructure competition, with analysts suggesting the company is better equipped than Tesla for sustained growth in a sector that is still in its infancy.