Societe Generale and Standard Chartered are bullish on a 50 basis point rate cut, suggesting the Fed needs to make significant adjustments to its pol
analysts at Societe Generale believe that the Federal Reserve's moderately restrictive stance has been maintained for too long and there is a risk of "excessive tightening". Therefore, despite concerns about current inflation stickiness, the risk balance in the Federal Reserve's dual mandate (employment and inflation) has shifted towards employment, and based on this, it is necessary to adopt a more aggressive policy adjustment (i.e. a 50 basis point rate cut). In fact, they are not the only ones holding this view, Standard Chartered Bank is another institution predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points this week. However, it is important to be cautious as this view contradicts the current market pricing and general consensus - the current market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut. As mentioned earlier, traders currently believe that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is only about 4%.
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