Key Notes
- TAO’s first halving in December will cut daily emissions by 50%.
- Bitcoin’s past halvings show strong rallies that could mirror TAO’s path.
- Current price action sits at a crucial junction near $337, with resistance at $366.
Bittensor TAO $338.6 24h volatility: 4.8% Market cap: $3.25 B Vol. 24h: $93.56 M is approaching a major milestone with its first halving less than 83 days away, expected around December 11.
The event will cut daily TAO emissions by 50%, from 7,200 TAO to 3,600 TAO, effectively reducing sell pressure on the market and making Bittensor one of the best crypto to buy in 2025.
Historically, similar events in Bitcoin have triggered strong rallies when lower supply hits the market while demand remains steady. Bittensor has similar tokenomics to BTC as well.
Upward Pressure Brewing for TAO
According to AI researcher Timo Moors, the halving will also adjust Alpha emissions. Current daily emissions stand 7,200 TAO and 14,400 Alpha. After halving, the numbers will change to 3,600 TAO and 10,800 Alpha.
The TAO halving is expected around 11 December, less than 100 days away. Time to refresh what will happen:
Right now, 7,200 TAO is emitted on-chain every day.
– 7,200 TAO * $322 = $2.3M of added market cap daily.
– Subnet liquidity pools are filled with TAO based on their price… pic.twitter.com/pIluIw8QDr— Timo | Neuralteq (@Nrltq_Research) September 3, 2025
The balance between TAO and Alpha_in (used to fill subnet liquidity pools) will remain intact, meaning no direct price shock is expected. However, since fewer TAO tokens will be sold daily, the market could see upward pressure if demand stays strong.
For new subnets, the reduced Alpha_in may create challenges in filling liquidity pools, but the overall ecosystem should benefit from the reduced dilution.
Timo shared a chart showing how past BTC halvings (2012, 2016, 2020, and the upcoming 2024 event) have historically led to major bull cycles. TAO is now at a similar moment with its first halving set to reshape tokenomics.
TAO Price Analysis: What’s Next for Bittensor?
TAO is trading around $337. The daily chart shows the price moving within a tightening triangle pattern. Also, analyst Michael van de Poppe pointed out that a break above the 20-day EMA could spark a strong rally.
I'm very interested to see if $TAO breaks the 20-Day EMA.
If that happens, then we're going to be seeing a strong move upwards.
It's been downtrending for more than a month. $TAO is still yet to get to $1,000. pic.twitter.com/Ld46WsCyDD
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 8, 2025
If TAO breaks above the 20-day EMA and clears $366, momentum could push it toward $440 and beyond. The halving narrative could then act as a powerful catalyst, potentially setting the stage for a run toward the $1,000 mark in 2025.
TAO daily chart with momentum indicators as of 8th Sept. | Source: TradingView
Failure to hold the $300 support could see TAO retest $280, and extended weakness might push it further down toward $250. A breakdown here would weaken bullish sentiment ahead of the halving.
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