Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a pivotal test after a sharp reversal from its recent peak.
The number one cryptocurrency’s slide below $110,000 has market observers closely monitoring a crucial band of support, with the integrity of the current bull cycle potentially hanging in the balance.
Key Support Zones Form the Bull Market’s Last Stand
According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., the market is now testing a primary defensive perimeter. In a post on X, he stated, “The nearest strong support zone is the 100K–107K range.”
His thesis identified this area as critical because it marks where two metrics historically significant for establishing market floors, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price and the 200-day Simple Moving Average, have intersected.
Adler further defined a secondary, more profound support level around the $92,000 to $93,000 level, which represents the cost basis for investors who have held coins for three to six months. This tier, he argues, would become the final defensive line should the first one be breached.
The analyst’s framework has come at a time when the market is reeling from a major correction. The sell-off was accelerated by a single entity dumping 24,000 BTC, worth more than $2.7 billion, triggering a cascade that sent Bitcoin to a seven-week low under $109,000.
Additionally, the resulting liquidation flush wiped out nearly $1 billion in leveraged long positions, a brutal but effective reset that purged speculative excess from the system. This price action caused BTC to break below the average cost basis of investors who bought during the May to July rally, a level that analytics platform Glassnode cautioned has previously preceded “multi-month market weakness.”
Market Structure Hinges on a Handful of Key Levels
The broader analyst community is largely singing from the same hymn book with regard to the importance of these levels , even though perspectives on the outcome differ.
For instance, EGRAG CRYPTO’s analysis , shared hours before Adler’s, also centered on $105,000 as a decisive figure. However, he outlined two potential scenarios, one being a deeper retracement to $92,000 and the other a successful hold leading to a parabolic rally.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $110,317, down more than 11% from its August 14 all-time high above $124,000. It has also shaved 4.4% from its value over the week, nudged by a slight 0.9% dip in the last 24 hours.
Despite the near-term momentum being in the red, the longer-term perspective offers some context. Over 30 days, the asset has gained 6.5% and it has stayed 73.2% above its price from a year ago, giving hope that the current pullback is still within the boundaries of a healthy correction in a larger bull trend.
