Citi Expects 10-Year US Treasury Yield to Reach 4.10% by Year-End

According to a report by Jinse Finance, Citi strategist Jason Williams stated that Citi has made slight updates to some of its year-end forecasts for U.S. Treasury yields, but remains confident in its long-standing projection for the 10-year Treasury yield. He said the institution still expects the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to reach 4.10% by year-end, consistent with forecasts since last year. However, Citi has moderately adjusted other benchmark points to better align with its outlook for a steeper curve and lower policy rates in 2026. Citi’s new baseline forecast for the two-year U.S. Treasury yield is 3.50%; for the five-year Treasury yield, 3.65%; and for the 30-year Treasury yield, 4.70%.