US Debt Soars $1 Trillion in 48 Days — What It Means for Crypto

Two months after Elon Musk criticized the Trump administration’s handling of the national debt, reports indicate that the US has added another $1 trillion in federal debt in just 48 days.

Deficit spending has become the largest macro driver with the least mainstream attention. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and decentralized finance (DeFi) are no longer just speculative plays. Rather, they are structural hedges against a broken fiscal system.

Is the US Debt Spiral About Spending or Interest Rates?

The surge translates to around $21 billion per day. It highlights what analysts and investors like Elon Musk have warned before, that the fiat system is locked into an unsustainable path, and digital assets may be the hedge.

In hindsight, Elon Musk particularly called out the recently signed One Big Beautiful Bill Act as crucial in further amplifying an already alarming deficit. 

However, since August 11, US debt has ballooned by $200 billion, pushing the national total within striking distance of $38 trillion.

What is happening here?Over the last 48 days, the US Federal Debt has surged by +$1 TRILLION, or +$21 billion PER DAY.Since August 11th, the US has added +$200 billion in debt.Why is US government spending running at WW2 levels in a "strong" economy?(a thread)

— The Kobeissi Letter

Washington posted a $291 billion deficit in July alone, the second-largest for any July on record. Deficits are running at $1.63 trillion for fiscal year 2025, up 7.4% year-over-year (YoY), and on track to exceed $2 trillion.

Similarly, government spending has exploded to 44% of GDP, a level only seen during World War II and the 2008 financial crisis.

While the Federal Reserve (Fed) still insists on a soft landing, the underlying numbers tell a harsher story. Revenues are barely growing at 2.5% annually, while spending surged nearly 10% last month.

“…It’s a spending issue, NOT an interest rate issue… It’s a spending crisis,” analysts at the Kobeissi Letter articulated.

This remark suggests that annual deficits would remain in the trillions even if the Fed slashed rates.

Implications for Crypto and Financial Markets

Bond markets are already flashing warning signs. Investors demand higher yields for US Treasuries, with recent auctions clearing above 5%, a rarity in modern history.

In May, we saw the first warning signs of the current deficit crisis.A weak 20Y Bond Auction came with a 1.2 bps "tail," per Zerohedge.The high yield of 5.047% was the second in history to have a 5%+ yield.Investors are demanding HIGHER yields for US debt due to more risk.

— The Kobeissi Letter

As debt refinancing accelerates at higher rates, the fiscal hole deepens. This presents a rather technical outlook for equities, commodities, and especially crypto.

In the short term, higher yields can drain liquidity from risk assets. However, in the long term, persistent deficit spending erodes confidence in fiat. This trend has historically benefited Bitcoin and hard-cap digital assets.

While crypto traders often frame Bitcoin as digital gold, the case strengthens when fiat regimes demonstrate fiscal unsustainability.

“On our current fiscal path, there is 100% certainty of US bankruptcy over the long run,” they added.

For many in crypto, America’s debt trajectory validates the thesis that decentralized assets offer protection against sovereign fiscal mismanagement.

With $38 trillion in debt looming and deficits locked in above $1.5 trillion annually, the temptation for future policymakers to inflate away obligations grows. That risk is bullish for Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative.

Altcoins could also benefit indirectly, as institutional allocators explore alternatives to yield-squeezed Treasuries.

Stablecoins and tokenized Treasuries are already absorbing capital, but liquidity spillover may extend over time into broader crypto markets.

What happens next hinges on whether Congress reins in spending (unlikely in an election year) and how aggressively the Fed balances rate policy against debt sustainability. Nevertheless, either path carries risks.