The US non-farm payroll data will be released tonight and the results will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's September interest rate
the U.S. July employment report, which will be released at 8:30 p.m. 东八区 on Friday, is expected to show an addition of 110,000 jobs, a significant decrease from June's 147,000; the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%; and the average hourly wage rate is expected to increase by 0.3%, higher than June's 0.2%. If the forecast is accurate, this will reinforce the view of a slowdown in the job market, although it may not necessarily require a response from the Federal Reserve.
At the earlier interest rate meeting this week, Powell did not give guidance on the September rate decision and pointed out that there are many data releases before then, with Friday's July non-farm report being a piece of the puzzle that will help shape expectations for a rate cut in September by the Federal Reserve. Analysts point out that if non-farm employment data is below 100,000 and the unemployment rate rises, it may suggest a weakening job market, dampening hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve and putting pressure on the U.S. dollar, which would be favorable for a rebound in gold prices. However, if non-farm employment data unexpectedly exceeds 150,000, the strength of the U.S. dollar may continue, as strong U.S. employment data could eliminate the possibility of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
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