Market Pulse: Week 27

Overview

With Bitcoin following the stock market’s lead and bouncing strongly from the short-term investors’ cost basis toward $108K, market sentiment appears to have shifted to a more constructive tone. Spot market momentum recovered decisively, with RSI climbing and Spot CVD sharply improving, suggesting renewed buyer engagement. However, spot volumes remain near their lower bands, implying that broader retail participation has yet to fully reignite.

In derivatives, futures open interest pulled back slightly from elevated levels, while funding rates flipped negative, reflecting some hedging or caution among leveraged traders. Interestingly, Perpetual CVD surged into positive territory, signaling aggressive buy-side flows despite funding softness, pointing to a nuanced shift toward accumulation in the futures market.

Options traders showed more balanced sentiment as the 25-Delta Skew dropped back toward neutral, while the volatility spread narrowed, indicating less fear of sharp price swings. Open interest dipped modestly but stayed historically high, highlighting continued speculative appetite.

ETF flows showed strength, with net inflows nearly doubling week-over-week and trade volume rising modestly. This underscores resilient TradFi interest, though ETF MVRV rose further, suggesting growing unrealized gains that could become vulnerable if prices reverse.

On-chain fundamentals remained steady: active addresses were broadly unchanged, transfer volume spiked, and total fees edged up, painting a picture of stable but not euphoric participation. Capital Flows metrics, including Hot Capital Share and Realized Cap Change, were stable, with the STH/LTH Supply Ratio suggesting long-term holders continue to dominate.

Profit/Loss State metrics rose sharply, with Percent Supply in Profit breaching its high band and the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio jumping significantly. While this reflects strong investor confidence, it also signals heightened risk of profit-taking and demand exhaustion if price momentum stalls.

In sum, the market looks to have entered a cautiously optimistic regime, with stronger positioning from institutional players and renewed accumulation, but still fragile participation on the retail side. For this rally to sustain, continued demand and broader market confidence will be essential.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators

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