Bitcoin (BTC) price could be on the verge of another surge despite the recent retreat. Analysts note that commonly seen patterns in the market and higher global liquidity could cause BTC price to rise above $130,000 by July.
Notably, chart analysis indicated that Bitcoin price could keep rising if certain macro and on-chain signals remain bullish. One notable point is that the top crypto trend mirrors that of global M2 money and follows familiar price patterns from past rallies.
Considering BTC price was trading near $110K, the coming weeks may determine its direction.
M2 Liquidity Correlation with Bitcoin Price Bullish Case
Analyst Ted (@TedPillows) shared a chart that related Bitcoin price rise to the global M2 money supply. Historically, the M2 line has tracked the movement of Bitcoin’s price.
This latest development suggested that M2 often leads Bitcoin, especially during periods when liquidity stays relatively still.
Bitcoin Price Chart Source: X
In addition, Ted pointed out that after consolidating in M2 for 1–2 weeks, Bitcoin price usually starts to increase. According to current forecasts, M2 is reaching new records, which might mean BTC price is ready to do so too.
Ted projected that Bitcoin could rise above $120,000 and might even increase to $130,000 by July, depending on whether the correlation persists.
BTC Price Tracks 100% Fibonacci Extension at $135,000
Another chart analysis by Titan of Crypto revealed that BTC price is repeating a previous pattern. The pattern used to start a rally to a Fibonacci extension level.
BTC Price Chart Source: X
Additionally, the pattern starts with a breakout above resistance, continues with a back-test of that point, and then there is a lasting increase. Notably, this setup previously pushed the price to $107,362, which was a 100% Fibonacci extension.
Similarly, Bitcoin price is now forming a similar breakout-retest pattern, and the following Fibonacci extension is predicted at $135,000. If this pattern repeats, BTC could achieve the extension level by the end of this cycle.
The current main support is at $69,000, where the most recent breakout occurred. As of late May, Bitcoin is above this zone, maintaining a bullish market structure.
Global Liquidity Pushes to Record Levels
In support, Ash Crypto presented a graph that showed the recent increase in global M2 liquidity. Global M2 has now hit a record, reaching above its previous peaks.
More liquidity in the market is generally linked to a rise in investments in risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
M2/BTC Pair Source: X
Historical data revealed that Bitcoin price rises when global liquidity is high. The current difference between BTC price and the M2 trendline possibly indicates a delay, not a divergence. Should the past pattern continue, Bitcoin could see its price rise as global liquidity keeps growing. Ash noted that BTC typically moves in line with such big shifts.
Bitcoin Open Interest Surge Signals Risk-On Shift
Meanwhile, the latest data from Matrixport revealed that Bitcoin futures open interest has shot up since April to over $38 billion.
BTC added growth surpassed that of Solana and Ethereum, signaling that investors are paying more attention to Bitcoin as markets change.
BTC Open Interest Source: X
According to Matrixport, the decision is due to a decline in meme-coin speculation. It is also due to the rising enthusiasm for using Bitcoin as a way to safeguard from risk.
Although open interest is increasing, Matrixport noted indications of stabilization. The chart pointed to a situation where traders might secure their earnings, and if the price consolidates, this could lead to another possible entry near support.
Despite bullish signals, the projected rise toward $130,000 depends on the continuation of current patterns. The breakout-retest setup must maintain key support levels, and M2 liquidity should remain elevated.
