Markets await outcome of $1.2 trillion US–China trade talks in Geneva

Market participants are closely monitoring secretive trade negotiations between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva, Switzerland.

The talks, held over the weekend, mark the first high-level meeting aimed at easing tensions from the prolonged U.S.-China trade standoff.

Both nations had previously imposed substantial tariffs on each other’s imports, contributing to market volatility.

According to sources cited by the Wall Street Journal, further discussions were expected to continue on Sunday, reflecting the talks’ complexity and importance.

U.S. President Donald Trump indicated on Saturday that the negotiations were progressing well, describing the potential for a “total reset” in economic relations.

Markets, including equities, cryptocurrencies, and gold, remain cautious but responsive to developments, with major indexes like the S&P 500 recovering some losses yet still below peak levels.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains elevated, signaling persistent uncertainty among investors.

Even minor comments or leaks from either side have recently caused significant market reactions.

A positive outcome—such as tariff reductions, a framework for ongoing dialogue, or a softened tone—could trigger rallies in stocks and digital assets and pressure gold prices lower.

WSJ reporter Brian Schwartz noted some delegates left early, but Bessent and Greer stayed longer to finalise agreements.

The negotiations were conducted under strict confidentiality to avoid market destabilisation from premature disclosures.

On Sunday, the White House announced a trade deal had been reached, describing the talks as highly productive and faster than anticipated.

Bessent credited the Swiss venue and President Trump’s involvement, while Greer emphasised addressing the urgent $1.2 trillion U.S. trade deficit.